NOAH was calling for what? 2-3 seas, SW winds at 10-15 knots, 20% chance of storms and then that big squall line came and cut you off from shore? Good thing you had WX on the plotter or it woulda been an even more exciting night. This does not bode well for the pick your days and you will be ok theory. Sometimes no matter how well you plan, those suckers will sneak up on you. I thnk you made the right decision to come back for sure and honestly not a bad one to go out based on the forcast…
NOAH was calling for what? 2-3 seas, SW winds at 10-15 knots, 20% chance of storms and then that big squall line came and cut you off from shore? Good thing you had WX on the plotter or it woulda been an even more exciting night. This does not bode well for the pick your days and you will be ok theory. Sometimes no matter how well you plan, those suckers will sneak up on you. I thnk you made the right decision to come back for sure and honestly not a bad one to go out based on the forcast…
Polly Wanna…
We are all doomed then. The entire shipping industry... All of us... Didn't you read where the entire shipping fleet was lined up for miles trying to get in to avoid the storm...
Also, remind me again, how many times did keywest225 die during this trip?
Been there done that on a trimaran off florida on the way back from the Bahamas. We were doing 26 Knots down wind with so much spray we could not see the bow lights. Glad to see ya’ll made it in.
Skineej…I know you are smart, but I think you are missing the subtle part of my point…
First, I like I said, I think the captain made all the right decisions… did not go out in dangerous WX and returned when he realized there was dangerous WX. He still had to go through it and if he was in a boat without real time sat info, he may not have known until he saw the fireworks…
Even though all the signs looked favorable, the WX turned bad…that is the part folks need to understand… bottom line is you need to be prepared for exactly this kind of WX no matter when the WX man tells you. If you go out there thinking you will be fine cause the WX is calling for 10 knot winds, 2-3 seas and 20% chance of storms… you could end up in one of these… that is all I am trying to convey…
Been there done that on a trimaran off florida on the way back from the Bahamas. We were doing 26 Knots down wind with so much spray we could not see the bow lights. Glad to see ya’ll made it in.
If your not fishin your not livin!
Another multi hull sailor I see! 3 Transpacs here, 2 on multihulls. Nothing like surfin down a wave at that speed under sail to get the ol adrenaline pumpin! Spent the night clingin to the bottom of one that turtled in another race, that was NOT fun!!
(ps. SkinneJ, that’s why to this day I’m leery of power cats! I shouldn’t be tho)
Skineej…I know you are smart, but I think you are missing the subtle part of my point…
First, I like I said, I think the captain made all the right decisions… did not go out in dangerous WX and returned when he realized there was dangerous WX. He still had to go through it and if he was in a boat without real time sat info, he may not have known until he saw the fireworks…
Even though all the signs looked favorable, the WX turned bad…that is the part folks need to understand… bottom line is you need to be prepared for exactly this kind of WX no matter when the WX man tells you. If you go out there thinking you will be fine cause the WX is calling for 10 knot winds, 2-3 seas and 20% chance of storms… you could end up in one of these… that is all I am trying to convey…
Polly Wanna…
No one is arguing that weather is unpredictable, but you are missing the subtle part of my point. And that is, in one way shape or form, this skipper as well as all other skippers that attempted the overnight found out about this weather and had time to make it back to land unscathed. Call it the human instinct to survive, but if I see lighting flashes from a thunderstorm that is 20 miles to the north of me, I am either getting a weather report or headed in...
Also, there likely weren’t any 17 foot boats out there, because most 17 foot boat skippers consider daylight as part of their requirements for a “ledge trip”.
And the other point is that weather it’s a 23’ boat with twins or a 60’ boat with full enclosure, most people that pick up this storm would head in… And if they didn’t, it’s not the size of the boat that got them in trouble. It was not heeding the warning signs of mother nature.
Skineej…I know you are smart, but I think you are missing the subtle part of my point…
First, I like I said, I think the captain made all the right decisions… did not go out in dangerous WX and returned when he realized there was dangerous WX. He still had to go through it and if he was in a boat without real time sat info, he may not have known until he saw the fireworks…
Even though all the signs looked favorable, the WX turned bad…that is the part folks need to understand… bottom line is you need to be prepared for exactly this kind of WX no matter when the WX man tells you. If you go out there thinking you will be fine cause the WX is calling for 10 knot winds, 2-3 seas and 20% chance of storms… you could end up in one of these… that is all I am trying to convey…
Polly Wanna…
No one is arguing that weather is unpredictable, but you are missing the subtle part of my point. And that is, in one way shape or form, this skipper as well as all other skippers that attempted the overnight found out about this weather and had time to make it back to land unscathed. Call it the human instinct to survive, but if I see lighting flashes from a thunderstorm that is 20 miles to the north of me, I am either getting a weather report or headed in...
Also, there likely weren’t any 17 foot boats out there, because most 17 foot boat skippers consider daylight as part of their requirements for a “ledge trip”.
And the other point is that weather it’s a 23’ boat with twins or a 60’ boat with full enclosure, most people that pick up this storm would head in… And if they didn’t, it’s not the
Name one person that doesn’t think that there is a risk of unpredictable weather. Anyone? I’m pretty sure that most everyone who posts on here has either had a “close call” or has heard of a story of a “close call”…
Heck man, I don’t even like staying out there after daylight hours because it get’s so ■■■■ lonely on the VHF. I like to make sure that there are other boats that I can maintain contact with. I think that anyone considering doing an overnighter should have at LEAST one other buddy boat with them if not several. I would agree that the risk at night adds much more complexity and risk to everything compared to a daylight trip. It takes away from your capability of sight to detect storms, it leaves you out there with MUCH fewer people that could assist you in a time of emergency and it makes your chances of being found VERY slim in a capsized vessel until daylight. At night, you are essentially “on your own”. In the daylight, at least norweigan cruise lines can find you!!! At night, your needs for a liferaft, wearing life jackets, EPIRB, personal strobe lights, etc all go WAY UP!!!
Again, in the daylight, your chances of being scared by the weather until you poop yourself are actually pretty significant. But your chances of actual dying are a lot less because statistically speaking, as scary as weather is, it hasn’t proven itself to be the maneater that it’s made out to be.
But look at my point in close detail… As many overnighters as there are, it’s nowhere NEAR the traffic of daylight hour trips. It’s because weekend warriors inherently are MUCH more precautious by nature with the added risk. If boaters were just inherently wreckless and stupid, then they wouldn’t see the night as such a scary element, but they do… Heck, even the 60’ boats plan their night trips with much more caution…
I am not talking about risk. I am talking about significant and unpredicted deterioration of WX conditions. I guess we can agree to disagree on whether people consider this as a realistic possibility when they pick their day…
one of the most awesome shows of green, purple, and orange lightning i have ever seen… with the ocean being sooooo flat you could see the upper atmosphere lighting for over 50 miles. I have a 48 NM HD radar and when we found the storm on XM it was way off in the distance. the storm covered a large area in a short time span.
That was a big storm and it came out of the NW - somewhat odd. It woke me up in Murrells INlet at 1:30am. We delayed leaving G’town until a little after 5am. Seas were fine then - but no one wanted any part of that storm as it pushed thru if you were ion the water. Lots of lighting and wind.
Send lawyers, guns, and money - The poop has hit the fan.
Skinneej and Cracker, for almost 5 years I read this website you guys are in dispute of somesort. From my perspective you both are great seaman and fisherman, and you both are right.
I was on that boat and I was happy to be heading in…and great driving to race the front edge that we could see approaching on the radar. The sat WX was delayed 10 minutes or so on the loop, but the radar was real time…it was interesting to see the difference. I was really dying to be putting lines in at the ledge at darkthirty, but that really was a scary storm approaching. The ligtning was spectacular even at 30 miles away when it was first approaching.
If you look at the image, the front (Southwest) edge of the storm was nearly parallel with our path back in…on the radar it was like watching a big wall come at you…and the lightning literally coverd the entire horizon to out north. I think conditions in the center of that 60 miles out would have sucked no end!!! We can always go fishing next week…
Skinneej and Cracker, for almost 5 years I read this website you guys are in dispute of somesort. From my perspective you both are great seaman and fisherman, and you both are right.
GW 232 GULF Yam225
Trust me. I have no issues with Cracker. This is a friendly debate. I would guess that he feels the same.
Guys thanks for all the open discussions, I m sure others have benefited. I think for all captain’s and crews out of this section of the east coast, we all take risks to do what we love… Offshore fishing and diving. It is a long way to go and no real fast way to get back inshore. All you can do is plan accordingly, pick your days, buddy boat when possible and have the best safety equipment you can get. When all was said and done, on this trip the VHF radio check from the coast guard at 49 miles out was the most reassuring. When I radioed them and asked them to track us on the way in every 30 min and they did.
We could really appreciate the time spent making sure that all the electronics and cabling were installed propoerly and the radio was installed for maximum range. The CG called us every 30 mins on 16 and 21 until we made it back to the dock, not just into the harbor but back to the dock.
thanks again to the US Coast Guard for monitoring us and tracking our safe return home!
I like Skinnee quite a bit… he is a good egg… no worries between us…
I do not want to get any pissing contests going or jinx myself either…
I just wanted to point out that this kinda WX can happen on days when it is not supposed to… it sucks being out in it… and if you are not prepared in many ways… you can get in a lot of trouble… if I am wrong on this, I don’t ever wanna be right…
3 Transpacs here, 2 on multihulls. Nothing like surfin down a wave at that speed under sail to get the ol adrenaline pumpin! Spent the night clingin to the bottom of one that turtled in another race, that was NOT fun!!