Facebook IPO on Friday

quote:
Originally posted by PeaPod
quote:
Originally posted by Post Quartermaster

Zuckerburg didn’t even come to NYC to ring the bell.


this amazed me beyond words.


You might not have realized, but he had other priorities. He was getting married on Saturday.

Who’s Ready for a Sleigh Ride? www.KayakFishSC.com

30 handle this morning.
Whoops!

BTW, options don’t start trading until next tuesday. That’s too bad…

quote:
Originally posted by Post Quartermaster

30 handle this morning.
Whoops!

BTW, options don’t start trading until next tuesday. That’s too bad…


Not looking for a quick trade here. Looking for a long term (5-10 year) thing. If it goes in the 20's, I will buy some more.

I’m jumping in when it falls into the 20’s and like skinneej will put it away and forget it for a while.

The thing to remember on the internet. If you’re not paying for it, you’re the commodity being sold. fb can make an insane amount of money by commercializing the user base and selling the right for other companies to integrate.

take a look at photobucket or about.com. When I “log in” all I do is click the log in with facebook button.
When I update YouTube, the info flows to my timeline.

Give it a little more time and fb will be hub centric to an enormous number of sites and applications

Who’s Ready for a Sleigh Ride? www.KayakFishSC.com

Does FB make money off of the items sold for real money in the in app games like Farmville? I have read about people going broke spending real money on that stuff. Does FB get a cut?


8" Dhingy

When I quit this site, can you retire my name?

quote:
Originally posted by skinneej
quote:
Originally posted by Post Quartermaster

30 handle this morning.
Whoops!

BTW, options don’t start trading until next tuesday. That’s too bad…


Not looking for a quick trade here. Looking for a long term (5-10 year) thing. If it goes in the 20's, I will buy some more.

When it gets into the teens, I’m gonna feel bad about calling you SnorkleJ…

I may buy some when the dust settles…but we’re a long ways from there, I think…they hit a circuit breaker today, options go to market Tuessday…too early IMHO.

But seriously, going back to your P/E exercise…lets look at it from another angle…

Facebooks intial projection of $105B mkt cap, 2011 profit $1B

So, mkt cap/earnings = 105

Google $195.75B mkt cap, 2011 profit $37.9B

GOOG mkt cap/earnings = 5

What each FB share would be worth if its IPO mkt cap/earnings ratio is reduced to Google’s figure of 5:

5 x $1 BillionwithaB earnings / 421million shares offered = $11.87/share.

Edited to correct my bad math/stats.

so now this story breaks after 2 solid days of trading, watching the stock drop over 10%…
http://www.cnbc.com/id/47520037
in my neck of the woods we call this a cluster****…

The Morris Island Lighthouse www.savethelight.org

PQ: you’ll appreciate this.

going long on that 5 minute chart…we used to call it ‘trying to catch a falling knife’

quote:
Originally posted by Post Quartermaster

When it gets into the teens, I’m gonna feel bad about calling you SnorkleJ…

I may buy some when the dust settles…but we’re a long ways from there, I think…they hit a circuit breaker today, options go to market Tuessday…too early IMHO.

But seriously, going back to your P/E exercise…lets look at it from another angle…

Facebooks intial projection of $105B mkt cap, 2011 profit $1B

So, mkt cap/earnings = 105

Google $195.75B mkt cap, 2011 profit $37.9B

GOOG mkt cap/earnings = 5

What each FB share would be worth if its IPO mkt cap/earnings ratio is reduced to Google’s figure of 5:

5 x $1 BillionwithaB earnings / 421million shares offered = $11.87/share.

Edited to correct my bad math/stats.


Google has 14.5% income growth. Facebook has 80% income growth, so I am not sure that it's an apples to apples comparison. I think that earnings growth is a lot more interesting than market cap when looking at a "growth" company. As long as they report stellar growth, the market will be irrational.

If they do settle in around $20 share, then I’m only down $1900. I’ve spent that much in a weekend in Miami. I will eventually buy more, and if they hit in the teens, then my cost basis will improve quite a bit. Some people call it “dollar cost averaging”.

Again, I said in my very first post that I don’t think that they are a 100B dollar company TODAY so you aren’t really shedding any new light on the situation. Also, as I mentioned before, I didn’t even consider buying them until there was all of the weirdness with the IPO. It was a gamble from the start that I am pretty confident that I will eventually get that money back even if it takes 5 years.

Looks like FB and company, Morgan, few others pulled a good scam.

I made a post last week that didn’t show up for some reason. I personally cannot see how FB is worth that type of money. I never click on ads that are there and even though I spend a good bit of time on there I don’t see it as anything more than a fad.

www.advoutdoors.com
“I have tomorrow open!”

quote:
Originally posted by CaptFritz

I made a post last week that didn’t show up for some reason. I personally cannot see how FB is worth that type of money. I never click on ads that are there and even though I spend a good bit of time on there I don’t see it as anything more than a fad.

www.advoutdoors.com
“I have tomorrow open!”


Agree on 2 points: 1) It's not worth 100B today 2) I never click on the adds either.

Disagree on 1 point:
Fad? - Name another “fad” that has ever had 900 million participants!

Population of the world: 6-7 Billion
Number of internet users: 2.2 Billion
Number of Facebook users: 900 million (approaching 1 billion)

That’s a pretty impressive fad…

How many pet rocks were sold compared to the worlds population. Do you know where your pet rock is today? Do you even remember Pet Rocks?

www.advoutdoors.com
“I have tomorrow open!”

Yes, 1.5 million… How many pictures and updates did you post on your pet rock?

Did the pet rock fundamentally change the way that you communicate with people?

When I threw them at people it got their attention.

www.advoutdoors.com
“I have tomorrow open!”

I was sitting in a training seminar last week talking about how the car companies should communicate with their supply base.

THE number 1 suggestion was to adopt the facebook model to share updates with your network of suppliers. We’ve been having similar conversations about the simplest method to communicate globally within our company and have a respository of pictures, information and documents… hmmmm sounds an awful lot like a facebook group would fill the bill perfectly.

Who’s Ready for a Sleigh Ride? www.KayakFishSC.com

quote:
Originally posted by Too Busy

We’ve been having similar conversations about the simplest method to communicate globally within our company and have a respository of pictures, information and documents…


SharePoint!

What if FB decided your company needed to pay x amount of dollars per year for their group page?

www.advoutdoors.com
“I have tomorrow open!”

Skinnee had the cajones to post his trade.

I’m ashamed of most of mine and wouldn’t post the trade, rationale, result, etc.