Okay folks, we all know it’s coming… WHEN do you think it will happen?
Also think that while the economy is “good”, it wasn’t as strong as the economy in 2006-2007 before the “great recession”.
Look at the green bars and red bars at the bottom of the graph. That’s probably a measurement of volume. I would imagine green means buying and red means selling… Seems like we are running on borrowed time right now!!!
Should I cash everything in? Go party like a rockstar until this all passes?
Redfish Baron Extraordinaire
quote:Partying like a rockstar is always a great option!
Originally posted by 23SailfishShould I cash everything in? Go party like a rockstar until this all passes?
Redfish Baron Extraordinaire
I think we are on borrowed time also. It’s a house of cards ready to tumble. We took a beating in our 401K when the market last crashed, held onto everything and got it back plus more, although the dollar is worth less now, so not sure how much more.
I’d like to know what to do with a 401K with almost 1/2 million in it, to protect it against the next market crash, not getting any younger and not sure I could ride it out again. Any advice or discussion on that would be welcomed.
Capt. Larry Teuton
Cracker Built Custom Boats
“Ships are the nearest things to dreams that hands have ever made.” -Robert N. Rose
I’ve only got a couple, don’t have time to let it ride. If I were young that’s what I would do. Need to figure out how to protect the gains now.
Capt. Larry Teuton
Cracker Built Custom Boats
“Ships are the nearest things to dreams that hands have ever made.” -Robert N. Rose
Larry
You won’t be cashing in your 401k all at once.
You could either flip it all into “safe” mode, where you’d burn through it at some rate. Or you could keep it as is and watch the balance decline and come back over time. The problem comes in if you start burning through it while it’s down.
Boat drinks, Waitress I need 2 more boat drinks!
It’ll be January-March. Since I put all mine into a safe account at the bottom of the drop, I missed this whole ride up. I am about to start investing again in January, so it is about to tumble. Just my luck.
I have been waiting for the bottom to drop for 1.5 years so I could jump back in, tired of waiting. Since I am not retiring for 25 years, I figure who cares if it drops, this money is in it for the long ride.
“Banana Pants”
Indigo Bay 170
90 Johnson
Wilderness Ride 115
quote:
Originally posted by GeronimoIt’ll be January-March. Since I put all mine into a safe account at the bottom of the drop, I missed this whole ride up. I am about to start investing again in January, so it is about to tumble. Just my luck.
I have been waiting for the bottom to drop for 1.5 years so I could jump back in, tired of waiting. Since I am not retiring for 25 years, I figure who cares if it drops, this money is in it for the long ride.
“Banana Pants”
Indigo Bay 170
90 JohnsonWilderness Ride 115
sell low, buy high… might be longer than 25 years for retirement like that!
quote:
Since I put all mine into a safe account at the bottom of the drop, I missed this whole ride up. I am about to start investing again in January, so it is about to tumble. Just my luck.
quote:
You could either flip it all into "safe" mode, where you'd burn through it at some rate.
That’s what I want to do is get ours in a safe and stable account, before the next drop. Can I just convert it to cash? I know, I need a financial adviser and not Internet advice, but there are a lot of people here who know a lot of things. I know boats and fish.
I don’t intend to be blowing through it any time soon, going to work until I drop either way, retirement isn’t for me, but I don’t want the market to blow half of it again either.
Capt. Larry Teuton
Cracker Built Custom Boats
“Ships are the nearest things to dreams that hands have ever made.” -Robert N. Rose
I just converted some to a cash fund. I dont know the details of your accts. Also utilities are stable and some pay good dividends.
I’ve wondered how the markets have remained so strong when Main Street still feels so weak…correction indeed…support at 1500 is a 25% correction, right?
The Morris Island Lighthouse www.savethelight.org
quote:
I've wondered how the markets have remained so strong when Main Street still feels so weak.
It is artificially inflated by the Feds printing money. I doubt it’s actually worth a dime more than it used to be, in spending power.
Capt. Larry Teuton
Cracker Built Custom Boats
“Ships are the nearest things to dreams that hands have ever made.” -Robert N. Rose
quote:Cracker Larry nailed it right there... That's the truth... If you put your money in 100% cash, then you will have a negative return in real life...
Originally posted by Cracker Larryquote:
I've wondered how the markets have remained so strong when Main Street still feels so weak.
It is artificially inflated by the Feds printing money. I doubt it’s actually worth a dime more than it used to be, in spending power.
Capt. Larry Teuton
Cracker Built Custom Boats“Ships are the nearest things to dreams that hands have ever made.” -Robert N. Rose
Cracker, you should talk to a financial advisor, but I would imagine they want some portion of your 401k to be in some type of fixed income fund. This is almost like cash. Only problem is that bonds will depreciate as interest rates rise.
That being said, I would think that you want to have some in cash ready to buy when the time is right. Maybe 10-20% of your portfolio so you can take advantage of the next dip… And, any positions you do own should likely be large blue chips that pay cash dividends.
At&t is an example of one… You won’t see much in terms of price appreciation, but at least they are paying good dividend. Also some of my favorites that DO show appreciation AND dividends are MO and PM.
quote:
If you put your money in 100% cash, then you will have a negative return in real life...
Yes, but the negative amount will vary with inflation at a few percent a year, but a 7,000 point market drop could do overnight what 10 years of inflation would do.
Yep, I need a financial adviser, sooner rather than later, it’s going to tumble.
Capt. Larry Teuton
Cracker Built Custom Boats
“Ships are the nearest things to dreams that hands have ever made.” -Robert N. Rose
This isn’t necessarily directed to Larry or anyone in particular just a few thinks I have learned so far and principals I use.
Rule of 100…
Say you are 31 (like me) your investments should be diversified as such. So the rule of 100 is based on your age minus 100 would be roughly what your risk should be (70-30) with 70 in the high risk funds 30 in the moderate to low.
It isnt a science just something my uncle shared with me and he is doing rather well in retirement. Of course there is a lot more to it than that. But as far as the risk you want and how you want to diversify is up to you. The one think that I have learned so far with money is careful who you take advise from and always do your own research. I am about 8 years into investments and learn something new all the time. Some good and some bad.
Also look up what dollar cost averaging is it is a powerful tool. But its not an overnight thing.
We’ve been dollar cost averaging for the last 40 years, and basically used that rule of 100. Now I just want to consolidate and protect our gains and not loose half of it overnight.
Capt. Larry Teuton
Cracker Built Custom Boats
“Ships are the nearest things to dreams that hands have ever made.” -Robert N. Rose
This is going so sound like a smart ars remark but believe me its not…but if someone can figure it out let me know I’ll buy their book. Lol. Good luck I will be there one day in your shoes. Thanks for the discussion always willing to hear other options.
Will Rodgers once said he was more concerned about the return OF his investment rather than the return ON his investment. There are some fine non market sensitive instrument out there that pay 3-6%. They are in the form of funds that are a mix of bonds, dividend paying blue chips and a few smaller options. You will miss out on the wild 30% upswings, but you will also miss out on the sleepless nights when the market tanks.
Find a good advisor(check out any SEC complaints) and listen to what he, or she, tells you. Just be careful about who you pick. Get references form people you know The good ones are not cheap, but well worth the money. It feels good to hear about a 500 point drop in the DOW and don’t even bother about checking your balance.
ZX
To those who may be inclined…This discussion is primarily about risk management. The concept of risk is as varied as the products designed to manage it. In essence the percentage of assets allocated to each of the 3 risk categories defines the overall risk of a portfolio. The 3 risk categories are Stocks, Bonds, and Cash. An individuals circumstance and emotional response to risk are critical factors in determining the percentage of stocks vs. bonds vs. cash in any given portfolio. For someone like Cracker who is concerned about losing value the allocation to stocks should be low. For someone who needs growth over time the allocation to stocks should be high. Where a lot of people get hosed is not understanding the products being sold to them and how they relate to stocks, bonds, and cash. There are many types of products, and one must drill down and due their homework to thoroughly understand what they own or are considering. A financial adviser is not necessary, and in many cases an expense that should be avoided. I can teach just about anyone all they need to know in an hour, or less. I just can’t predict the future.
Sol Mate
Mako 20B
225 Optimax