I have had it for several years. Finished up with a 92% return plus a hefty dividend while I waited. I just don’t see the growth story any more. I would buy it back in the mid-30’s again, but it’s just gotten to pricey at this point.
It was fun while it lasted, but now we must part ways…
I’m so going to find out what all this means and come back and comment…
Redfish Baron Extraordinaire
Good thing Jason. Garmin’s going nowhere… especially in today’s world of powerful mobile phones.
Why not short it now?
Charleston City Papers Best Guide of 2014
And in the world of Google cars and stuff, the whole GPS thing itself might become a thing of the past (for driving instructions that is).
Have you invested in any airlines? I’m briefly tempted to invest in Etihad seeing how they’re growing (they just bought a 49% stake in Alitalia).
quote:I don't short stocks. Too risky... Your gains can not be higher than 100% and your losses are infinite. That doesn't sound like fun to me!
Originally posted by CaptFritzWhy not short it now?
Charleston City Papers Best Guide of 2014
Also, when you short stocks, you have to PAY the dividend. Garmin pays a dividend, so I would have to shell out money every time they pay a dividend to their shareholders.
quote:The airline industry is so mature, saturated, and slow moving that I tend to stay away from companies like that. I prefer either companies that have some growth and pay a nice dividend (4-6%), or companies that are small to mid cap that have shown steady (> 20% CAGR ) for the past 5 years and still look like a "good deal" with respect to price (P\E).
Originally posted by jamesbluntAnd in the world of Google cars and stuff, the whole GPS thing itself might become a thing of the past (for driving instructions that is).
Have you invested in any airlines? I’m briefly tempted to invest in Etihad seeing how they’re growing (they just bought a 49% stake in Alitalia).
quote:I would say the American airline industry is mature and slow moving, but the Middle East is where all the action's happening. also when choosing stocks, do you choose foreign companies? All things equal, for example, if I put a gun to your head and said you *had* to buy a bank stock, would you buy a Wells Fargo/Bank of America or a Barclays, BNP Paribas, etc.?
Originally posted by skinneej The airline industry is so mature, saturated, and slow moving that I tend to stay away from companies like that.
quote:You don't have to hold a gun to my head to get me to buy a bank stock. I own BMO (Canadian) and WFC (Wells Fargo). At my cost basis, so far, I have a 19.5% return on BMO with a 4.7% dividend and a 22% return on WFC with a 3.2% dividend.
Originally posted by jamesbluntquote:I would say the American airline industry is mature and slow moving, but the Middle East is where all the action's happening. also when choosing stocks, do you choose foreign companies? All things equal, for example, if I put a gun to your head and said you *had* to buy a bank stock, would you buy a Wells Fargo/Bank of America or a Barclays, BNP Paribas, etc.?
Originally posted by skinneej The airline industry is so mature, saturated, and slow moving that I tend to stay away from companies like that.
I bought BMO because of the high yield, reasonable P\E, and the fact that it is a Canadian stock which is a play on a weakening US dollar and strengthening Canadian dollar. As our dollar gets weaker relative to Canada the price will go up (inflation pressure).
Actually WFC was speculative for me. They haven’t had much growth in the past 5 years which goes against my normal routine. That being said, I am getting a 3.2% dividend and the stock chart has been at a 45 degree incline since 2011. So, it’s actually a “momentum trade” for me. I will dump it faster than a hot coal if the trend starts to reverse.
I don’t see the point of owning BAC. They are a big stalwart with no growth, high P\E for a bank, and a poor dividend. Thinking you will make money off of that stock is going against all odds at this point.
Anyway, I
How long did you take to get into the stock market after you played around on dummy websites mimicking the market? I don’t want to rush to get in.
quote:I kind of just played with real money. The dummy websites are probably good practice, but it removes the emotional aspect from it which is hard to master. Not only that, but I did a few and didn't have patience for the results. I ended up doing terrible. If I could do it again today, I think I would do well. They will humble you quickly. One thing they teach you is that it's not so much about what company you pick. It's about getting that company at a good price and seeking performance relative to market performance.
Originally posted by jamesbluntHow long did you take to get into the stock market after you played around on dummy websites mimicking the market? I don’t want to rush to get in.
The hardest thing to learn is when to buy and sell. When real money is involved, you tend to be a lot more emotional and give up on good ideas too soon because you are scared to take a loss. I had so many good trades that I sold down 15-20% because I thought they were going lower. Turns out, if I had just stuck to the original premise and held out another year, I would have made a ton of money. Same goes for selling too soon. I’ve owned dozens of stocks, made 40-50% or more and then sold out… Only to be reminded later, that I could have made 500% on them! Nowadays, I have removed much emotion out of my trading. Don’t get me wrong. I don’t like being 30% down, but I don’t panic anymore if I still feel that it’s a good company. I try to only sell when the stock doesn’t really meet any of my valuation criteria anymore. I would say that it takes 2-3 years to get comfortable with it.
The best thing you can do is forget that you are buying stock and pretend that you are buying a real company (that’s really what you are doing anyway). Don’t think of it as a share of stock that goes up and down.
Very good advice, thanks for taking the time to explain it so well. You brought up a good example of Facebook. everyone knows Facebook. But let me ask you this - in addition to knowing your numbers well, how do you keep your general knowledge in check about emerging trends? Your stats on FB was great, but that’s a public beast and I bet I could get that information by doing some research on my own on the Internet.
However - if there’s a “Sam’s Coconut water shack” company that’s just gone public. How do you learn about the coconut water industry, it’s future prospect on lifestyles and if it’s worth you investing in stocks in this company?
I guess what I’m trying to say is: like you I’m a software engineer so I can judge whether to buy a Microsoft or FB or Oracle stock. However there are tons of non-software companies out there (biotech, entertainment, food, etc.) and I know nothing of them. Would just seeing their financial sheets over the last decade’ish be enough for me to make a solid business decision?