Survey of 16,000 of them came out as 50% chance of recession… I don’t get it. They have dedicated their entire lives to economics and I would be willing to bet that if you interviewed 16,000 weather men, that their answer would be more uniform and probably more correct.
So you see folks, there is an easier job than being a weather man… Economists have it easy. None of them agree on anything, so they are all wrong…
Not only that all of the bad news lately follows this format… “GDP came in at 0.6% which was lower than the economists estimate of 1.1%”… Hmmm… Who are these guys who keep getting it wrong when we are obviously in a recession and strong bear market?
skinneej has some glacial oceanfront property on Greenland he is just waiting to offload to some Wall Street exec when the ice caps start melting.
do you listen more to Steve Leisman or Dennis Kneale?
recession…possibly
bear market…absolutely not
why?..because I said so!
I was hoping you would see that in USA Today. The russell hit it a few weeks ago. The market will dip in and out and then drop. It's kind of like a turd "gophering" it's way out...
Did not see it in USA Today, heard it on CNBC. MY boy Scott Wapner was reporting on it.
The markets will trade in a range, I agree. BUT, I think earnings and more global growth will trend us up from here and not down. We are close to the bottom of that range right now and might mill around there for a week or so unless earnings come in strong this next week then we will shoot up rapidly to the upper range. The key is how much more write-downs do the banks and financials have?
MBIA just scored a floor.
The BHP - RIO Tinto deal is eminent
Microsoft Yahoo - we have not heard the last of this one (and yes, I bought some more YHOO at the money calls)…and is GOOG really out of it?
Potential consolidation in the airlines could not come at a better time.
AAPL, MSFT, INTC are at support.
PLUS the CF.com stock game begins Monday!!!
What else do we need for a rally?
If MSFT\YAHOO do a deal it won’t benefit share holders for years. Yahoo doesn’t earn any money and MSFT is offering to pay 44B of shareholder money to another company who doesn’t make anything. That inevitably means that there will be a dilution in EPS and a declining stock price in the short term. Mergers this big take years to really iron out.
Global growth will not carry EPS. Most companies still do a majority of their business in the US. Also, if the “global recession” story starts to play out, you will get hurt pretty badly banking on global growth.
