Edisto-fisher, look here just a moment please

What do you make of this?

http://247wallst.com/2009/03/23/oil-sands-universe-just-got-simpler-su-pcz-tot-eny/

Oil Sands Universe Just Got Simpler (SU, PCZ, TOT, ENY)
Posted: March 23, 2009 at 7:33 am

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Two of the largest players in the Canadian oil sands, Suncor Energy Inc. (NYSE: SU) and Petro-Canada (NYSE:PCZ) announced that Suncor will acquire Petro-Canada in a deal valued at $15.5 billion. Shareholders of Petro-Canada will get 1.28 shares of the new company for each share of Petro-Canada they hold, and Suncor shareholders will get one share for each share of Suncor they hold.

According to the joint press release, the deal represents a 25% premium over the 30-day weighted average of Petro-Canada stock. Once the share exchange is completed, Suncor shareholders will hold 60% of the new company and Petro-Canada shareholders will hold the remaining 40%. The new company will retain the Suncor name, as well as the Petro-Canada brand in the refining and marketing end of the business.

Suncor’s president and CEO said, “The combined portfolio boasts the largest oil sands resource position, a strong Canadian downstream brand, solid conventional exploration and production assets, and low-cost production from Canada’s east coast and internationally.” Petro-Canada’s president and CEO, who will become the Executive Vice Chairman of the new company, said, “The merger will be good for shareholders of both companies with reduced capital requirements, operating efficiencies and complementary integration opportunities between upstream and downstream assets. The increased scale provides more stability in volatile markets, plus the financial and organizational capability to successfully take on large-scale projects in the future.”

The merged companies expect to save $300 million a year in operating expenses. Combined production totals 680,000 barrels of oil equivalent annually, and refining capacity totals 433,000 barrels/day. The merged companies wil

I’m not in any rush, but I like the sort of news I see above… The stock should go down a little more so long as oil stays as low as it is I’d think. I could be totally wrong, but isn’t getting the oil out of the sand more costly than other sources at this time? Perhaps it is the cheapest. R&D should be cheaper, but actually capturing the resource may be more costly than a hole punched through some rock into a big tank of the stuff. When oil starts heading north of $40, I will have my money in there before others catch on. Until then, why not wait for another slide? Aren’t your dividends about to be paid out tomorrow or ??? I would want to wait until after any index has paid its quarterly div’s before I buy.

Do I need to be in any rush?

Luke 8:22-25

quote:
Originally posted by edisto-fisher

I have been telling you, Skinneej, PQ, schools, and all you other arm chair investors that now is the time to buy (and plan on holding) stocks like SU, IMO, ENY, and a handful of other big players in the ATS’s.

They (the tar sands in Alberta) have more oil reserves than the kingdom of saudia arabia. Yes, that’s right,more oil reserves than the Arabian peninsula.

Are you hearing what I am saying? It is liquid energy,bitumen to be specific,sweet lite crude. The stuff that made Jed a millionaire.

It is on our continent with a country that is our closest allies. What is not to like? Do you really think oil is going to stay at 30 something dollars a barrel much longer?

Here is the deal Phin,get you some ENY to start,to test the waters. It is an index fund of all the stocks you have been investigating lately that have to do with what is going on in Alberta now. It is government backed. It pays better than a 10% dividend.

Anyway,just remember any advice you get concerning the stock market is worth about as much as you paid for it.

While I have you here I feel strongly about this too,BTU is going nowhere but up. Mr. Peabodys coal train is running 24/7.


Buy and hold armchairs?

Pfffffffft…

I’m pretty sure 99% of the people in this forum wouldn’t recognize an Iron Condor even if it crapped 10% in their portfolio every month…

You people stick with your “stock picks”…kinda like drinking natural lite…hey, everybody likes it…but leverage, much like high gravity alcohol, achieves the same result in a smaller time frame…as long as you can manage the greeks…

Here is the danger as I see it… We live in very scary times… This economy is a LONG way from a recovery. Chances are, we have not seen the worst of it yet. I’m kind of in the middle of the “crap this isn’t good” and the “doomsday” predictions. We are in a real crisis and it’s going to take years to fix our broken economy. If I had to guess, I would think that global demand for oil hasn’t quite fallen enough yet. Keep in mind we are looking at $50-60 oil at the moment which is what it was in the height of our last bull market!!! Japan just reported a 50% decrease in exports a few days ago. What would happen to most of the businesses around here if they lost 50% of their business all of a sudden? I’m guessing bankruptcy. As these businesses go bankrupt, they won’t need to leave the light switch on anymore. They also won’t need their forklifts, heavy machinery, etc.

I think that there is a real chance that we could see oil at $30-$35 a barrel (possibly lower) depending on what happens to the rest of the world. If that does happen, then the cost of production will be HIGHER than what they can sell it for. That means no revenue and ultimately bankruptcy. Take a look at this chart of oil prices over the last 12+ years (note that this is a slightly older chart).

If you do, you will note that oil didn’t even become > $40 barrel until mid-2004. Anyway, if oil prices do start to reign back in to around the < $40 mark, then it would seem that the oil sands guys would be living on slim profits. Also, oil has been in a tremendous bull market during that time. It seems to be due for a bear market for a while. I do however like oil as a hedge against inflation. I recently owned a good bit of ATW, but I sold it yesterday because of the technicals. I like them because they are small (only a 1B dollar company), they are deepwater (which is the new trend as easy oil is ha

skinneej,
Here’s the long term oil forecast from one of a few different sources that I follow on a weekly basis. http://www.forecasts.org/oil.htm and the outlook from the EIA http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html

You’ll note that they don’t really agree. I put quite a bit more faith in the EIA’s prediction based on my 5 year experience comparing these 2 sources. Forecasts.org appears to be using a statistical forecast based on the Winters model using non seasonally adjusted data. I believe that EIA is using the same raw data then applying real world logic.
The EIA model forecasts a long term price point that can support oil sand production.

You might want to look into Clarcor. When / if oil sand production takes off they’ll make a killing. Purolator Facet is the king of sand control screens.

There is nothing - absolutely nothing- half so much worth doing as simply messing about in boats. Kenneth Grahame

quote:
Originally posted by edisto-fisher

The driller is not paying 10%+.

All we need is for some camel riding turban-head to blow something else up and oil goes over $40 that very day.

No one said anything about my BTU play either,like I said,Mr. Peabodys coal train is running 24/7.


I assume you are talking about dividends. Haven't you been watching the news man? These things are being cut left and right. I can guarantee you that these will be cut if oil prices fall. :smiley:
quote:
Originally posted by edisto-fisher

Oil prices have fallen to near historic lows (considering cost of living) and are on the way back up now,just look at the pumps around where you shop. Probably up 10 to 15 cents this week alone with the price of a barrel of oil inching up daily.

Just refer back to this very thread and my words here in a month or two,much less a year or two.

There has never been a better time for investing in these tar sands. Never. There will never be a better time either. Ever.

Just so you know, I lost a ton of $$$ on these very stocks I am telling you about. When oil took a dive so did the ATS stocks. Our relentless thirst for fuel will be quenched. China is thirsty too.

You can not print your way out of this mess like BHO would have you believe,you have to manufacture your way out.

Or not,what do I know,I am just a knucklehead who likes to fish.


We are in a service economy now, and we’ll never be a manufacturing economy again without protectionism. Even Bush expanded our trade deficit and let more manu. jobs be lost to overseas; think obama will do any better?
I assume you were talking about China manufacturing their way out and not us…

We will have to rebuild a lot of stuff in the near future. Roads and waterways are going to waste faster now than ever as govt’s spend money on the wrong stuff and ignore the infrastructure until it totally fails. It will all come to a head where the contruction and demolition bus. will do well. Plus, there’s all this energy plan and infrastructure rebuilding/expansion related to that. There is your final big oil spurt in this country I think.

We will kill the emissions regs and run nasty diesels in our autos like Europe before we pay over $3.00 a gal. for fuel

quote:
Originally posted by edisto-fisher

Phin,whatever you do (and trust me on this) do not go back and see how much money you would have made by now,just in this month alone,had you listened to me.

Poor little Phinnette,probably going to have to go to Columbia and be a gamecock if you don’t start paying attention.

Se la vie.


My money got put on Mead Westvaco a month ago. And I told you to do it and why…

Same amount of cash now as before the recession.
Large holder of tens of thousands of acres in real estate.
Market diversification.
Upswing every summer when people are building and using more lumber.
Renewable resources policies from the government.
Sustainable, certified “green” processes.
History of $.23 dividend per share per quarter regardless of the quarterly earnings and stock prices.

Who is MWV’s competition? Anyone? Any substitutes with the capital to hang in there?
Who are the canadian sandmen’s competition? Anyone? Any substitutes with the capital to hang in there?

I couldn’t get into MWV at the best time, but I got in at $11.95.
Are you seriously trying to tell me that ENY did better than MWV during the last 4 weeks?

???

What was ENY a month ago? 10 bucks? 9.50? I’ll give you 9.50.
As of 1:17PM today, ENY is at $11.44. That’s 20% growth in value.

What was MWV a month ago??
11.70? We can just say 12 bucks, and I’m fine with that comparison.
Is MWV not at 15.47 as of 1:30PM today? That’s 29% growth in value based off 12 bucks price.

And I am going to get 23 cents per my 11.95/share investment this quarter. What’s that come out to? 2%? And when will I get it? May 5, 2009, Sir.

Your ENY dividend on March 25, 2009 was 16 cents per share. Do the math. 1.7%

You seem much more worried about this than me. Why don’t you update everyone on the mwv and eny prices today and again tomorrow. Don’t forget to calculate my capital gains (or the capital gains I missed by not putting the same money into eny). Use my generous-to-you numbers of 9.50 for eny base and 12 for mwv.

Dude, you don’t even know how much dividend you got on your stock this past quarter, 16 cents. You’re asking where that number came from on here, and it is apparent that you don’t fully realize what “yield” means and what actually can or will be put into your pocket. Pro-tip, these are the amounts uncle sam will know about from your 1099-B and 1099-DIV reports.

You will make my points for me by wigging out about mwv down profits and layoffs and shutdowns. It matters not. They don’t have anybody hurting them but a recession. They are still up for the year.
What about eny? Are they up? How much? What’s hurting them? Conoco phillips? Exxon mobil? British P? Ethanol policy?

Are you counting on all the oceans and wildlife preserves being shut down to drilling? Are you who is pushing for red snapper shut down and all the reefs where snapper could be shut down?

I hope cracker is not right. If he is, maybe the pew foundation has some ownership stake in oil sands. Wait. Isn’t pew foundation an offshoot of sun oil or somebody??

Luke 8:22-25

quote:
Originally posted by edisto-fisher

OUCH,down 30 cents so far just since a few minutes ago.


Ouch.

Finished up yesterday and up 22 cents today finishing at $15.66.

Why are you not yet here to explain this to us all???

Do I dare ask about what ENY has done today?
Nope. Not 22 cents. Not 2 cents either. A whole 3 cents!

FYI, where does 16 cents come from? From the same place that tells me to not expect miracles out of this ETF of yours called ENY. Forgive me for going a little crazy with the boldfacing below. You have forced my hand.

http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/partsub/funds/etfreturns.asp?ETF=true&symbol=ENY

Claymore/SWM Canadian Energy Income: Returns

Calendar-year total returns
2008
Total return % (MKT) NA NA NA NA NA -54.18
Total return % (NAV) NA NA NA NA NA -55.37

Trailing total returns

ETF

Total return (MKT) % Total return (NAV) %
Year-to-date -10.76 -10.62

1-year -58.56 -59.39
3-year annualized NA NA
5-year annualized NA NA
10-year annualized NA NA

Cumulative returns
MKT NAV
3-year NA NA
5-year NA NA
10-year NA NA
Since inception -62.46 -62.50 </font id=“red”>

Distribution
Ex date 3/25/2009
Income dividend 0.1600 </font id=“size6”>

Luke 8:22-25

I like looking at these charts sometimes; they help me understand what kind of returns I may be able to expect out of a stock or ETF.

MeadWestvaco Corp

Date High Low Open Close Volume
4/30/2009 15.9600 14.6000 15.0500 15.6600 10,212,300
4/24/2009 15.7700 12.6500 13.5200 15.5500 10,979,500
4/17/2009 13.8600 12.3100 13.0100 13.7400 8,417,700
4/9/2009 13.3600 11.9300 13.1800 13.1600 6,717,800
4/3/2009 13.4300 11.4300 12.6000 13.3200 10,890,400
3/27/2009 13.1700 11.2400 11.2400 12.9900 10,400,800
3/20/2009 11.9300 9.6800 9.9200 11.2500 9,983,400
3/13/2009 9.8200 7.6400 7.7100 9.7500 9,887,200
3/6/2009 9.3700 7.5300 8.9900 7.8500 14,295,000
2/27/2009 9.9200 8.4100 9.7100 9.3400 11,403,600
2/20/2009 10.5000 9.3500 10.5000 9.6700 7,365,000
2/13/2009 12.1300 10.5200 11.8200 10.8500 8,590,300
2/6/2009 11.9100 11.0000 11.2900 11.8400 11,129,700
2/3/2009 0.230 Ex-dividend
1/30/2009 13.3300 11.5000 11.8000 11.6400 9,367,700
1/23/2009 11.9300 10.7700 11.5300 11.7000 9,727,200
1/16/2009 12.0200 10.5600 11.7900 11.7800 9,774,900
1/9/2009 12.7700 11.3100 11.3900 11.9000 12,791,300
1/2/2009 11.4800 10.4200 10.7000 11.4400 6,963,000
12/26/2008 11.4700 10.6600 11.4500 10.8100 5,069,600
12/19/2008 12.6900 10.7300 11.3500 11.3200 14,809,200
12/12/2008 11.9100 10.4800 11.0000 11.1500 10,640,900
12/5/2008 11.5200 9.8800 11.5100 10.7800 8,205,600
11/28/2008 11.9200 10.1400 10.4000 11.6600 5,670,600
11/25/2008 0.230 Ex-dividend
11/21/2008 12.1900 9.4400 12.0100 10.1800 10,788,800
11/14/2008 13.6900 11.1900 13.6900 12.2300 7,315,400
11/7/2008 15.3450 13.0100 14.0300 13.3700 9,334,000
10/31/2008 14.9600 12.1000 12.9100 14.0300 12,030,500
10/24/2008 16.1480 12.7500 15.2200 13.1500 9,074,900
10/17/2008 21.4800 14.7100 19.6100 15.2200 18,034,400
10/10/2008 22.4400 17.0000 22.2500 18.8900 12,921,100
10/3/2008 24.8600 22.1200 24.6500 22.5900 13,203,300
9/26/2008 25.9500 24.2700 24.7700 25.1100 6,458,000
9/19/2008 27.6600 23.2200 2

quote:
Originally posted by edisto-fisher

profit taking today,you can kiss that .30cents a share you made this week goodbye mr. kramer.


Wait a minute now. I see that as of right now, ENY is flat for the day and MWV is up 14 cents.

Unbelievable!

Luke 8:22-25

Midday headline: “MWV stock up 50 cents since yesterday’s close, 6% for the week, despite warnings from edisto-fisher to sell asap because of impending doom for the company.”

Luke 8:22-25

I will be out of this stock before it tanks, Sir.

Wait just a moment. What’s this? Another nut? Thank you. I have no idea where these things are coming from- reelly.

MWV now up 70 cents for the day???!

Unreal!

By-the-way, I am already out of CERN. Can’t argue with a $6 per share profit in less than a week, can you? Dumped Ford yesterday. Might regret that one… I figured chrysler going bank ruint would be as good of a time as any to sell it at $2 per share profit.

How do you like those nuts?

I believe I will stop while I am ahead though…
So don’t think that I’ve become so lucky with these nuts that I am going to start risking more and more. I think people are easy to predict, but you never know when some swine flu or something will beat up some stocks or something. Wait a minute. Did somebody say there was a carnival cruise lines nut somewhere? Let me go look…

Luke 8:22-25

quote:
Originally posted by edisto-fisher

Ha ha ahhhhhhh ah hawwwwwwwww

Phin is not going to like that last Wallstreet BLAM I just put on him now is he?

Phin, if you see this check your text messages asap

If anyone needs me I will be short selling MWV for the next few hours.</font id=“size6”>


How’d this one work out for you?

Congratz

Luke 8:22-25

quote:
Originally posted by edisto-fisher

I didn’t read any of that


Steppin and fetchin as if you are standing face to face with Cleopatra herself, on the river of denial.

Luke 8:22-25

Mr. fisher, tell me what you think about wal mart(WMT)haveing a monopoly in big drug retail to supply all the pharmacy chains along with us.Good investment?

quote:
Originally posted by edisto-fisher

Or how about SU,another jewel I gave you recently.

That one tripled up your MWV today as well.

I hand you a nice big fat package of picks, you go thru and pick out the single worst of the bunch and then complain. The worst of the bunch is still up several percent.

You young kids,I swear,beats all I have ever stepped in.


You know just as well as I do that you were on here for weeks spamming ENY to all of us. I don’t even remember anything about any SU stock. ???

It was ENY. It was the sand oil. It was this. it was that. All about ENY though.

Here is my gift in return. NE. Go look at NE. Thank me later for at least putting the seed in your mind about offshore drillers. If you want to stay in an ETF, then you can look at REA.

Both will fit perfectly with your coal train mindset, but with an ocean-going twist.

Luke 8:22-25

I got out of MWV this morning at $17.05

Hope you were still short selling it this morning to get your money back…

Luke 8:22-25

You two need to stop listening to Kramer.

And all this talk of dividends by Phin is lol considering he’s “daytrading” these stocks…learn how to sell some covered calls or vertical spreads and stop all of this n00bsaucing.