Here is what I have been saying about 2000

Louise Yamada finally got my memo… I’ve said at least 3-4 times in these forums to go back and look at the charts back to 1999. This is EXACTLY what I was looking at (scroll down and watch the video at the bottom)…

She makes a brilliant comment. I could have written this appearance for her. She says, “I would rather be out of the market wishing I was in, than in the market wishing I was out”…

Now for the REALLY, REALLY, REALLY scary part… If you know what a “head and shoulders” technical chart formation looks like and you zoom out for at least 20 years, you might get a little boo boo in your pants… I don’t truly believe that the American economy is dead, but this could be a huge turning point in history.

Could we be the next Japan?

If you didn’t know that this article was about Japan, you might think it was written last month about the US. Of course the speculation in Japan was much higher and the bull market was much hotter, but you get the point…

Througout history, no empire has ever stayed on top forever. Even the Roman Empire fell eventually. There is no doubt that the USA will not be the world power forever. The real question is, have we come to the end of our reign? Americans are fatter than everyone else, save less, are more in debt, more arrogant, and are very complacent in our rule. We’ve been living “high on the hog” for a long time. Is the great bull market of America over? China outnumbers us 3:1 and have 11% GDP growth to our 0.6% last quarter. I just hope the Chinese bubble pops so we still have a chance as “king of the hill”…

All I know is that the feds were very reluctant to cut rates and then they gave us the biggest cut in history. What are they so scared of for such a desparate move?

This is the end as we know it… You heard it there first…

holy fricken hell. well skinneej you have now taken the cake here buddy. Louise Yamada did make some decent “chartology” points on Fast Money tonight, but I thought you were not a technical trader? Gotta give the lady her dues, she has been around long enough to know her schtuff. I too thought her comment about being on the sidelines, in cash right now, was kind of earth-shattering.
The Feds have made some major moves the last two weeks, and Plosser’s comments today seemed to send us down even further, yet the Fed funds futures are calling for another inter-meeting rate cut.
there is de-coupling going on between the USA and the rest of the world. who said this is such a bad thing? there are many a US company that are focused on international growth as well as domestic growth.
As for the 20 year zoom-out for the head and shoulders…good God man, when you look at the charts on a 20 year level you could have 3-5 years of contrarian plays there. I am a chartist too, but if you believe what you are saying then we should be headed for a 4-6 year recession.
dude, if you want me to extend our “stock game” to 12 months then just say so…don’t be scaring all the hangers-on right now.
Tomorrow will be trouble, no question. From there will determine at least the general direction for the next 3-5 months.
I have enjoyed this volley…the ball is back in your court sir. :smiley:

PALMETTO C ~ 16’ Sea Fox

The Morris Island Lighthouse web page

I am not a chartist or chart trader, but I don’t ignore them either. I don’t want to completely ignore what the market is doing. Like I said, I lost a LOT of money during the tech bubble. I don’t want to repeat the mistake. I’ll use any source I can get to scare me out of the market.

I’m calling for a minimum of 1 year recession and possibly up to 3 years. I am just saying that the chart looks “interesting” if you zoom it out. Most of my text above was just to get your creative juices flowing. It’s just a doomsday “what if” scenario. It’s not that I believe it, but they tell retired people to get out of stocks for a reason and it’s not because of 1 year bear markets.

Lots of bad news to come… Baby boomer retiring is bad for the stock market as well as they will move out of stocks and into bonds which will create more selling pressure.

Sure there are companies with a strong export story, but most of their business is still right here in the USA. That 40% export business isn’t going to keep the other 60% afloat. Look at MSFT. They reported the strongest quarter EVER since 1975 which is unheard of at this stage in a large cap’s life. They even projected that they didn’t see any problems ahead. A week later, the stock has gone from 33 to 29.

I just want you to declare me chief economist when all of this plays out.

Do ya’ll think we’ll break 12k on the Dow this week? Only 176 pts left.

I think we will hold that level. skinneej thinks we will fall through it. should that happen then we will prolly have another leg down.

PALMETTO C ~ 16’ Sea Fox

The Morris Island Lighthouse web page

This is the reason world equities will decline. The market is getting ready to start pricing in the inevitable. Read the DOE webpage and look at the Hirsch or GAO reports. It is going to be a rough ride.


Wooops, sorry that was just part one. Here is the link to the whole story.

dow 10800 before June 2008