Here we go again.
Mike’s Weather Page has the best collection of information. The Euro model shows a Cat3 storm approaching the Florida panhandle Thursday morning. Then on to the Ga/SC border near Allendale Friday morning as a strong cat 1/almost Cat2 storm.
I’d rather be shrimping than doing hurricane prep, but I firmly believe that doing extensive prep tends to turn hurricanes away!
Looks like it’s stalled, and intensifying quickly.
Mike’s weather page is good to look at for info. Don’t really care for his commentary too much, he seems to be a bit dramatic at times.
From the state climatologist’s office:
Good Morning,
Friday is shaping up to be a tad sporty.
Tropical Storm Michael formed yesterday and is currently off the western tip of Cuba, 760 miles SSW of Beaufort and tracking north at 7 mph with 70 mph winds. North not good. Michael will soon be over deep, warm GoMex waters that will support continued rapid intensification. Michael will soon become a hurricane as soon as lunch today. The storm has rapidly intensified overnight already and will continue to intensify during the next 48 hours becoming a 110 mph hurricane before landfall Thursday on the Florida Panhandle near Apalachicola. Don’t go there.
A deep trough over the Midwest will guide a weakened Michael over the State starting late afternoon Thursday and during the day Friday. Michael’s effects in SC will be highly track dependent. Based on the current forecast track that takes the center of Michael just south of the I-20 corridor across the State, Michael paints a stripe of 4-10 inches of rain across the state south of I-20. 2-4 inches for the Upstate. Eastern Carolina could see 4-6 inches of rain they do not need. Maximum sustained winds 30-45 mph over SC, again south of I-20 abating during the day Friday. A gentle reminder that the leading right quadrant contains the most shear and is notorious for producing tornadoes.
“Apathy is the Glove into Which Evil Slips It’s Hand”, but really, who cares?
OUCH!!! Opening day of bow season was interrupted by Florence and now opening day of rifle season is going to be interrupted by Michael. Is what it is. Y’all be safe out there.
“You don’t always know where you stand till you know that you won’t run away.” ~Slipknot
gamecocks have a home game on Saturday
After being released, a lot of fish die, but a lot of them live also.
quote:
Originally posted by CaptFritzgamecocks have a home game on Saturday
After being released, a lot of fish die, but a lot of them live also.
Can’t rain any harder than last Saturday.
Sat thru it, was brutal for sure. OF course I had a rain jacket in the car but at kickoff it was 90 and blue skies. Thankfully working on the water has taught me to carry a set of dry clothes in a Ziploc in the car and I was able to change after the game.
After being released, a lot of fish die, but a lot of them live also.
Check out MyFutureRadar.com. Scroll down to the Thursday 2pm prediction.
Looks like a good bit of our state, including the SC coast will get some heavy duty rain bands.
I’m hoping that Michael’s trip across GA will knock down the winds.
spec
1980 Skandia 21 w/ '93 JohnRude 150 gas drinker
Is it time to evacuate yet?
DON"T DO ANYTHING! Wait until the Governor tells us what to do.
ZX
Both the GFS and Euro show winds much higher when Michael crosses from GA to SC Thursday than what I see on other forecasts.
Most everything, except the GFS/Euro models, show winds down to Tropical Storm strength in SC. The models show about 985mb or almost Cat2 winds at the GA/SC border. That’s about 90 mph sustained winds.
I tend to look for the worst case, and usually that proves to be a “false alarm”. But, it is possible that Michael could do significant damage as he travels across the middle of our state.
spec
1980 Skandia 21 w/ '93 JohnRude 150 gas drinker
I don’t think I’ve ever seen a storm intensify this quickly. He went from nothing to a Cat 3 in 1.5 days it seems. The projections also show it really increasing tracking speed like I’ve never seen before. That deep trough looks like it’s really gonna grab it and go.
Those poor folks that took Florence don’t need this rain. Hopefully the tracking speed keeps rain levels down.
First, Most, Biggest
6.9’ hi tide Thurs around 10:44AM…tack on potential 2’ of surge and any rainfall and we’ve got some significant flooding in the Charleston area…it kinda feels like the Charleston area is gonna get surprised by some bad weather…y’all be safe and diligent…
The Morris Island Lighthouse www.savethelight.org
quote:Time to gun some hens
Originally posted by Bonzo726.9’ hi tide Thurs around 10:44AM…tack on potential 2’ of surge and any rainfall and we’ve got some significant flooding in the Charleston area…it kinda feels like the Charleston area is gonna get surprised by some bad weather…y’all be safe and diligent…
The Morris Island Lighthouse www.savethelight.org
Highlights from a conference call I just sat in on:
• Hurricane Michael current info:
#61607; Currently a Category 4 storm with 140 mph sustained winds
#61607; Moving north at 12 mph
#61607; Landfall expected this afternoon in the Florida Panhandle around the Panama City area
#61607; Forecasted to be the strongest storm ever to make landfall in the Florida Panhandle
#61607; Tropical storm force winds are expected to reach SC tonight – early tomorrow morning and exit the state Thursday night\Friday morning
#61607; Wind expectations: 25-40 mph sustained winds with 50+ mph gusts
#61607; Rain expectations: 2 – 6” (over a 2 2 1\2 day period beginning possibly as early as tonight) with possible higher amounts in certain locations
• Isolated flash floods possible
#61607; River flooding: minor to moderate
• Any flooding issues are expected to be on the Big Pee Dee and Congaree
• No expected impact on the Conway area
#61607; Coastal impacts: moderate flooding during high tide (especially in the Charleston area) Thursday
• Neither ESF13 (Law Enforcement) or ESF 16 (Emergency Traffic Evacuation) have activated nor had any input on the call.
• A number of counties are at least OPCON 4 and transitioning to OPCON 3 and possibly higher as conditions dictate
• 5 counties are considering opening shelters
#61607; Most counties are still waiting on local decisions regarding schools and government closings
• Currently no expected need or requests for state assets this afternoon.
And, from the State Climatologist:
No major changes to our forecast as Michael passes over the State Thursday as a weakening Tropical Storm. Michael will begin weakening after landfall primarily due to friction and the lack of deep, warm seawater in central Georgia. After landfall, Michael will accelerate and pass over the State at 20-25 mph. Michael’s enters the State before 8 AM Thursday with 20-40 mph winds gusting to 60. Dynamic arboreal integrity checks ensue. The core of strongest winds will be near the c
Ok. Could someone please translate “Dynamic arboreal integrity checks”?
spec
1980 Skandia 21 w/ '93 JohnRude 150 gas drinker
I know the guy, he is quite funny and I believe a closet creative writer.
He means the ability of some trees to withstand the winds. Especially considering the fact that the ground in many areas is saturated thus making it far easier for trees to topple.
“Apathy is the Glove into Which Evil Slips It’s Hand”, but really, who cares?
Thanks. Finally a scientist with a sense of humor!
I hope he is right about those 20-40 mph winds.
BTW, I heard a TV weather guy last night say something like “Michael’s central pressure is down to 943 mph”!
spec
1980 Skandia 21 w/ '93 JohnRude 150 gas drinker
Nothing but limbs down in Hampton. No trees, signs, etc. down. I’m happy my “worst case” did not happen.
I hope others in our area were spared damage. Pray for those in the panhandle area of Florida who were “nuked”.
spec
1980 Skandia 21 w/ '93 JohnRude 150 gas drinker