New home construction up for 5th months in a row

Maybe some light at the end of this tunnel!

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090818/ap_on_bi_ge/us_housing_starts

quote:
Home construction up for 5th month in a row Tue Aug 18, 6:20 pm ET

WASHINGTON – At least the market for new homes isn’t getting worse anymore, and that’s the first step to getting better.

In fact, the overall economy is actually getting a small boost as more buyers walk into model houses ready to sign contracts and builders hire workers to pour foundations and pave roads.

Construction of single-family homes rose in July for the fifth straight month, edging up almost 2 percent to the highest level since last October, the government said Tuesday. Building permits climbed nearly 6 percent.

Each new home built creates about three jobs on average and generates about $90,000 in taxes paid to local and federal authorities, according to the National Association of Home Builders.

With new construction up 37 percent from its low point this winter, the industry is expected to help the overall economy this quarter for the first time in three and a half years.

“Housing is no longer a drag,” said Mark Vitner, a senior economist with Wells Fargo. “That’s a good thing.”

Of course, the housing industry is coming back from the worst recession since the Great Depression, and construction is still more than 70 percent from its 2006 peak. So the impact from hiring and spending on materials like wood and concrete is modest.

In addition, hammers are silent at construction sites for apartment buildings. For developers, it makes little sense to build when there are so many vacant homes and condominiums for rent. Apartment construction fell 13 percent from June to July.

That pulled the combined construction rate for homes and apartments down 1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 581,000 units, from 587,000 in June. Economists polled by Thomson Reuters expected 60

That is good news. Hope it will continue.

“Sighs Matters”

GW 205
F200 Yam

The good news is that, yes, there is some light at the end of the tunnel. The bad news is that locomotives have headlights…

http://www.mbaa.org/NewsandMedia/PressCenter/70050.htm

The non-seasonally adjusted delinquency rate increased 64 basis points from 8.22 percent in the first quarter of 2009 to 8.86 percent this quarter.And, the delinquency rate includes loans that are at least one payment past due but does not include loans somewhere in the process of foreclosure.  The percentage of loans in the foreclosure process at the end of the second quarter was 4.30 percent, an increase of 45 basis points from the first quarter of 2009 and 155 basis points from one year ago. The combined percentage of loans in foreclosure and at least one payment past due was 13.16 percent on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the highest ever recorded in the MBA delinquency survey.

For all of the “sky is falling” you hear, there has been some positive momentum lately. We had a 20 month inventory of houses as late as February, and now we’re down to 8 months. I sell product to companies that make construction materials, and since June our sales have started moving up.

The cash for clunkers got rid of a lot of dead inventory on the car lots, to the tune of about 1/2 million cars sold. It’s also going to mean that car sales will be slow the rest of the year, but at least dealers are aren’t paying the floor plan on their current inventory. Now if they’ll only use some restaint as they fill their lots back up. Also, one automotive fabric manufacture that I’m familiar with is bringing back workers previously laid off as auto manufactures start to stir.

The UBS conversion netted about 10 billion for the US government. We can only hope that other conversions will have a similar benefit for the US taxpayer.

Of course, there is still a long hard way to go before we’re out of this mess, but it appears that some of the stimulus package may have a positive effect. Economists are even discussing on holding off on some of the outstanding stimulus monies in the future.

Keep your fingers crossed.

Mandopickr, as always, thanks for your insight. It’s always nice to hear from someone so close to the real action. Please keep us posted on any trends that you see.

I for one am glad to see some positive growth but am still concerned. We have a lot of window shoppers out there but may be getting closer to some buyers. I guess my biggest concern is what happens when the cost of inflation,that we all know is coming, is realized. Anyone care to expound on that?

Mark
Mako 262 Twin Yammaha F200s
Yeah, but do you consider a dog to be a filthy animal? I wouldn’t go so far as to call a dog filthy but they’re definitely dirty. But, a dog’s got personality. Personality goes a long way.

“Life’s tough…It’s even tougher if you’re stupid” John Wayne