I generally like and respect the people who work at NOAA. I worked in a NOAA office for about a decade. Good people. A lot of good work gets done. But, with this storm (Laura), NOAA got some splainin’ to do.
As Laura came across the GoMex, NOAA NHC predicted 15-20’ of potential surge and used the word ‘unserviveable’ in their official discussion of the storm. Well, the storm certainly did and is doing a lot of damage. But, the surge prediction was WAY OFF. See all the water level stations along the GoMex from Galveston to New Orleans. The biggest surge I can find is at Calcasieu Pass showing about 2.2’ predicted with actual of 11.1’ for about 9’ of surge. All others are about half that or less.
Calcasieu Pass Water Level Station: https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/waterlevels.html?id=8768094&type=Tide+Data&name=Calcasieu%20Pass&state=LA
Sabine Pass (30 miles West of Calcasieu): about 4’ or surge → https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/waterlevels.html?id=8770822&type=Tide+Data&name=Texas%20Point,%20Sabine%20Pass&state=TX
Top of Sabine Lake (directly North of the Pass): about 2’ of surge → https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/waterlevels.html?id=8770520&type=Tide+Data&name=Rainbow%20Bridge&state=TX
Data appears to be incomplete for 8766072 Freshwater Canal Locks, LA which is East of Calcasieu. Storm may have taken that station out/offline. So, that may be the area of peak surge. Don’t know.
Eugene Island station (further East): about 4.5’ of surge → https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/waterlevels.html?id=8764314&type=Tide+Data&name=Eugene%20Island,%20North%20of&state=LA
As you go further West or East of these, surge values shrink quickly to trivial.
So, what’ up NOAA?
--------------------------- 17' Henry O Hornet w/ Johnson 88 spl 26' Palmer Scott project hull 14' Bentz-Craft w/ Yamaha 25