I have the opportunity to fish offshore a good bit this year, and I’m trying to learn how to make an informed decision on when we can (or shouldn’t) fish. What criteria do y’all take into account when planning a trip? I know wave height/intervals and wind, but what else? What’s the “optimum” combination of factors? Does one factor take precedence over the others? How do y’all take all of the data and collectively make a decision? Please get back to me with your ■■■■■■■■. Thanks in advance.
“I’m not a hundred percent in love with your tone right now…”
I don’t usually rely on wave height and wave interval forecasts. I want to know what the wind is doing in terms of knots and what direction it is coming from. I can usually guess what the ocean will be like from that. I also want to know how that pattern will change during the day. I also look for stability issues. I will zoom out on the map and look at how dynamic the pressure system looks. The very dynamic ones with little “cells” all over the map can only be seen from a 2D map, not a NOAA prediction. I also get a feel for how accurate the prediction timelines are leading up to the trip. Has the weather man been spot on, or has his forecast been changing every 4 hours? And, you must ask yourself, “what is the worst weather that I see on the map”, not “how good could it get?” Also, the type of trip I plan might change. For instance, I dove a few times this year where there was 17-19knts out of the NE in the morning (In this scenario, you arrive 3 miles upsea of your intended waypoint and turn the boat tailing sea as you put dive gear on). It was rough, and it was nasty, but I didn’t go 60 miles offshore either. One more thing, I want to know what the cloud cover looks like and how many thunderstorms are around. You can almost be sure that if it’s stormy that you will be down wind from a few cells at some point so add some chop to your expectations. In addition, if it’s total cloud cover with not much sun all day, and nasty, then I am more inclined to stay home. It’s one thing getting a little wet, but to be cold and wet… Well…
So, I guess you could say:
<> Wind direction and speed
<> Sustained direction of wind versus changed direction
<> Stability of larger weather patterns in the area
<> dynamics of the change in the forecast and accuracy over past 12-24 hours
<> Cloud cover and sunlight
<> Possibility of thunderstorms
<> Worst case scenario
<> If you don’t have radar then you need to understand fog conditions as well.
Just pay for some forecast service so you have someone to blame when it’s off. Otherwise labor over the factors noted above by skinee like most of the other folks.
i use magicseaweed, reef cast, and noaa for forecasting in that order. I also look at capers reef and edisto bouys before going. if those don’t agree, I use what’s between the ears. In my boat, I generally don’t go if it’s forecasted to be more than 10 or 12 knots, or more than 2-3 feet, or a wind from the northeast. It can never be too hot or too cold to fish, only too windy. it can sometimes be too rainy, but that can be debated and ameliorated by enclosures and raincoats.
and dont forget to re-check the weather the morning before you leave the house!!! went out to one day, forecast the night before was 10-15 3’. no real biggie. at 6am they put out a small craft advisory (left house @0400). didnt notice anything till got 50 miles out and the sun came up. then it was “oh poop”. waves were so high that in the trough i could not see R8 4 miles away. that was a LONG 3.5 hour ride in with honest 6’ occasional 8’ on the nose.
“Just pay for some forecast service so you have someone to blame when it’s off. Otherwise labor over the factors noted above by skinee like most of the other folks.”
Uh, don’t care about placing blame. “Laboring over the factors” is common sense and essential to fulfilling rule #1 of offshore fishing: Get back to the hill.
Thanks for the input, fellas.
“I’m not a hundred percent in love with your tone right now…”