Place your bets on the rally...

I will be selling a lot of stock tomorrow… I’m just saying. With the S&P hovering above the 50-day moving average and really no great news, I think that I will go ahead and cash out the money that I have made in the past few weeks.

There may be a little more upside to this one, but I won’t be greedy. You guys can have S&P 900. I’m going to wait for S&P 700 again… I wouldn’t be shocked if this rally lasted into next week, but I think I will quit while I am ahead.

I’m hanging on to a few stocks, but if we have an up day tomorrow (which I hope we do), then I’ll probably be sitting in 90% cash at the end of the day.

Of course, by “tomorrow” I actually mean today since it’s after 2am.

I’m hoping we’ll be up again today, so I can get out too.

Richie

Nicely played, gents!

Sea Hunt 2002
Yamaha 150

Why didn’t you guys tell me that FSLR was going to have such a strong move today?!?!? I sold it close to the open at $136 and thought I was smart. It has hit up to $158 today!! Oh well, I chickened out. I am not going to chase it now, but if we get a correction in the next couple of weeks, I will buy it back under it’s 50 DMA.

what do you think about cat

Never really looked into CAT and you should know where their income comes from before investing too heavily into it, but here are some things that could possibly keep the stock beaten for a while:

  1. They run a very heavy debt ratio a lot of which is coming due very soon
  2. Their net profit margin is pretty small
  3. What they sell is expensive. It’s hard to get loans right now because of the credit crunch. This could hurt their sales.
  4. I would imagine that a lot of their business comes from construction, and construction is down.
  5. They have a decend dividend, but this could easily get cut if they need the cash to pay the bills
  6. The trend of this stock seems to follow the overall trend of the market pretty carefully. Therefore, I wouldn’t expect it to turn around before the global economy does.
  7. They are already the biggest in their industry. What is their potential to GROW (remember, you own a stock because you expect the company to GROW it’s intrinsic value or pay a juicy dividend).

Again, this only comes from taking a quick peak at it, but it would be enough to start looking for another stock. That being said, if you really spend a few hours researching them, finding out what they growth plans are, how they could benefit from business overseas, etc you might have something. They seem like a pretty diversified company and possibly into mining of commodities, etc. If they are havily saturated in mining and agriculture, that might be pretty good during a depression. Overseas sales would benefit from a weaking US dollar, but overall, construction is way down in the US and that is probably a big drain on them. I wouldn’t doubt that they add on a few more bucks to the upside on this rally, but if this rally runs out of steam, I would bet that they fall with it.

One upside potential for them is Obama’s promise of updating and expanding infrastructure, which will require machinery. I don’t know if I would count on that, though.

Richie

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also there are massive amounts of good cheap used equipment out there that will hinder sales of new equipment for many months ahead

quote:
Originally posted by skinneej

Why didn’t you guys tell me that FSLR was going to have such a strong move today?!?!? I sold it close to the open at $136 and thought I was smart. It has hit up to $158 today!! Oh well, I chickened out. I am not going to chase it now, but if we get a correction in the next couple of weeks, I will buy it back under it’s 50 DMA.


Why didn’t you just reset your stop loss instead of cashin out?

GW 205
F200 Yam

I should have. I tried it on a stock recently and it didn’t quite work the way I wanted.

Lets take another look: We are now up 28% from the March lows, the futures are over 100 points to the downside this morning, BAC beat their earnings forecast but the stock is decidedly lower this morning ( I sold 1200 shares at $10.86 Friday. In the last week I have liquidated almpost all of my long positions and bought some SDS betting on a pullback on the S&P. I am thinking this may be the beginning of a correction that is overdue. My game plan is to ride it down for 100 points or so on the S&P then go long again. Your thoughts?

Long Enuff

quote:
Originally posted by Long Enuff

Lets take another look: We are now up 28% from the March lows, the futures are over 100 points to the downside this morning, BAC beat their earnings forecast but the stock is decidedly lower this morning ( I sold 1200 shares at $10.86 Friday. In the last week I have liquidated almpost all of my long positions and bought some SDS betting on a pullback on the S&P. I am thinking this may be the beginning of a correction that is overdue. My game plan is to ride it down for 100 points or so on the S&P then go long again. Your thoughts?

Long Enuff


Nice trade on the BAC. I got rid of my FAS this morning for nice +.

Looks like we have broken out of the ascending wedge on the S&P, so we’re going down in the near term. I’m looking for a small bounce before adding more short (via SRS most likely). I’m ~40% faz and the rest cash. DYODD. It seems to me the primary trend lately has been bear market rallies forming ascending wedges and then breaking out to new lows each time. We’ll see.

FYI a little tidbit making the rounds this morning (I am not saying its credible):

http://turnerradionetwork.blogspot.com/