quote:
Originally posted by CaptFritzHope and Change
He took the bait like a jugbelly redfish on an olive and white clouser.
I thought it was hope FOR change.
GW 205
F200 Yam
Ouch is right. Looks like we broke through support… Scary times… No wonder why Ammo is selling for twice as much as it was a year ago…
so should we thank Big Ben for this meaningless snapback rally?
And the sea shall grant each man new hope as sleep brings dreams of home ~ Don Cristobol
The Morris Island Lighthouse web page
www.savethelight.org
Sure we could go lower, but I’m not willing to give up on a bottom yet. We’ve been here for a few months now. These levels seem pretty meaningful…
650 on the SPX, within 3 weeks max.
quote:Nah... Gold is way overbought and that money will have to go somewhere... I see us getting a rally off of this and money shifting away from all the gold hype back into the markets over the next few weeks...
Originally posted by Post Quartermaster650 on the SPX, within 3 weeks max.
But to be honest, I have about 0% confidence in this. I think it’s 50-50 at this point and could go either way. I’m just kind of sitting around and waiting at this point…
But then again, I think that there is a possibility of a wave of dividend cuts coming with the blue chips (at&t especially) that will scare the “high yield” buyers out of the market… I’m not talking about the financials. That’s obvious. I’m talking about the ones that they haven’t talked about on TV yet that will need to start making the decision to either start investing (needing that cash) or stop the bleeding…
quote:
Originally posted by skinneejquote:Nah... Gold is way overbought and that money will have to go somewhere... I see us getting a rally off of this and money shifting away from all the gold hype back into the markets over the next few weeks...
Originally posted by Post Quartermaster650 on the SPX, within 3 weeks max.
I don’t believe the inverse correlation between gold and the SPX is quite as strong as you imply. Sure we may get a short term double bottom rally…it may even get us back up to 820, maybe, but the next wave down will break through the double bottom area. In the mean time Cramer will bite the heads off of some teddy bears and have his little rubber bulls humping everything in sight…
Don’t believe the CNBC hype.
Why do you keep implying that I am a blind sheep follower of CNBC hype? This is not me…
I just have a difference of opinion than you… Your interpretation of the technicals is that we broke through the lows and will go lower. My interpretation of the technicals is that we seemed to meet support again (give or take a few points)…
You are right… There isn’t a direct coorelation between gold and the SPX, but people have been touting that the gold trade is a “flight to safety” (which is a CNBC thing)… If people “fly FROM safety”, then CNBC will probably cheerlead this as people gaining confidence in the market (i.e. people getting out of safety mode).
I’m just hypothesizing that anyone caught on that side of the trade will scramble to put their money somewhere causing a small rally which will scare some people back into the market in fears that they are missing out on something… That’s all I am saying bossman…
Anyway, check your email, I think that OptionMonster Pete may be telling you what to do next 
quote:
Originally posted by skinneejWhy do you keep implying that I am a blind sheep follower of CNBC hype? This is not me…
Maybe its because CNBC tends to be the leader of the “we’ve put the bottom in” line of thought…or maybe its because the mental image of you waving a foam bull around whilst cheering on Cramer makes me lol a little bit whether it is true or not…
quote:Actually, I don't think we broke through the previous lows yet. I do believe we are tracing Minute wave [iv] of 3 of (5)on the SPX, with somewhere around 710 being the next big stop on the way down. And like I said before, we're heading towards 650 sooner than later IMO.
I just have a difference of opinion than you... Your interpretation of the technicals is that we broke through the lows and will go lower. My interpretation of the technicals is that we seemed to meet support again (give or take a few points)...
quote:
You are right... There isn't a direct coorelation between gold and the SPX, but people have been touting that the gold trade is a "flight to safety" (which is a CNBC thing)... If people "fly FROM safety", then CNBC will probably cheerlead this as people gaining confidence in the market (i.e. people getting out of safety mode).
But the gold trade is also a flight to safety from inflation moreso than a flight from equities. Like I’ve mentioned before, the inflation is coming, the current flig
Will Gold be the next bubble?..
Richie
But PQ, that’s where you are wrong… Nobody on CNBC has called a bottom yet. In fact, I am not calling a bottom here. I’m just saying that I am not giving up on the hope that this may be a bottom just yet. I jumped well ahead of them on my bullish turn. I turned bullish several weeks ago, remember? Granted we have gone down about 5% since then, but we are fairly stable. I’m not saying that we can’t go lower. I’m just saying that I find this a reasonable time to start sneaking back into the market. There are many companies out there that have strong balance sheets and are trading at book value. Notice that the ones that we talked about are not the ones that are advertised on CNBC. For instance, I just sunk a few thousand bucks into CALM which is a ■■■■ egg company. It’s not sexy enough for CNBC. You can bank on that… But it’s sexy enough for me…
Gold ETFs ARE the next bubble.
Look PQ, I totally understand the entire inflation argument, but when will YOU realize that you learned that from CNBC??? You are incorrect about your assumption that gold is not a flight from equities. Equities have outperformed gold AND inflation over the long run of history. The problem is that people ran from equities, but they can’t ditch into cash because of the inflation threat… Again, inflation won’t happen for at least a year or so. It takes a while for money to circulate. Gold has gone up 100% in the past year. It’s had it’s best run pretty much ever and has formed what looks to be a big “double top”. Commodities like gold have never had that kind of run without an eventual correction. It’s on TV every day and “everyone” is talking about it on CNBC!!! YOU OF ALL PEOPLE, should understand why this thing is about to fall. Especially with the way you are claiming to be a CNBC contrarian when indeed, the entire CNBC herd is buying as much “GLD” as they can get their mouse to click on!!!
But still, if you are scared about inflation, you need to realize that a gold ETF is not the answer. E
And just so you don’t get the wrong idea with my text, I do enjoy these good debates with you. Winning them is even more fun!
Anyway, just remember that I fought this entire crowd 18 months ago when I dumped my entire 401K out of equities and into Money Market when the DOW was still > 13,000. I had debate after debate after debate about how interest rate cuts would mean nothing, etc. All of this was ANTI-CNBC. Every week, I had a debate with someone on the board who thought I was an idiot for taking the DOOM AND GLOOM approach. But they aren’t laughing now, are they!?!?!?
Sure, I’ve made a few bad calls along the way expecting a short lived bull rally that caused me to poke a little money in and hope to trade off of it, but the market dropped so fast with pretty much no sustained bull rallies, but for the most part, I did pretty well during this whole thing…
I’m just reminding you of that before you accuse me of being a CNBC kookaide drinker again! Sure, I watch a few shows to get the data points, but I make my own interpretations and I did it with REAL money. The proof is in the pudding baby!!!
PS, my broker opened up a new way that I can treak my traditional 401K like a traditional IRA. Pretty ■■■■ cool. I get the best of both worlds. I get the employerr matching in the 401K, but I can finally pick individual stocks… Let me know what you optionmonster Pete says this week and maybe we can trade around it…
By the way… Who are your heroes in all of this? You might be suprised to know that I follow the Peter Schiff, Nouriel Roubini, train of thought for the most part, though I think that Nouriel is probably closer than anyone. Peter is pitching the Doom and Gloom, but I think that the part he fails to really acknowlege is that because of the Global recession and melt down in other markets, this buys us time to get things right before hyperinflation was a true threat. Granted, if the rest of the world was strong, then we would be in a world of hurt, but their pains are buying us time to get things right…
quote:
Originally posted by skinneejGold ETFs ARE the next bubble.
MARK MY WORDS… Gold will get back down to 700 or lower EASILY!!!***
*** Disclaimer: No investment advice is given here. Please do your own research. This is only the view of a backyard economist.
Optionmonster Pete just pm’d me and wanted to pass along the message “Calm down big guy”.
For the record I own exactly $0 gold in my investment accounts. FWIW, I have held a small short position on a gold etf since back in January. Remember when I asked you about the looming COMEX default on gold a couple months back? I agree with you on the gold etfs, although I believe the endgame of the gold etf collapse to eventually push gold higher once people realize their is no chance of physical delivery,etc. But yes, we both know that if gold goes to $5k it won’t matter because there will be no food on the shelves and the value of lead will be much higher than gold simply because bullets will be needed to relieve people of their gold…That being said, I wouldn’t be surprised to see gold go higher in the medium term, after, as I previously mentioned, a corrective retrace…
Good to hear about the 401k changes. Congrats, and welcome to the dark side…have you got my email? If you’re looking at oil, go take a look at DXO…I use it for the occasional swing trade on the oil rally’s.
Negative. I didn’t see an email from you. Please send again…
I have had my eye on DXO since I found out about it a few days ago, but I want to wait for a pullback in OIL before I test it out… For DXO in particular, it looks like it has been trending downward over the last 3 months, and I am trying to be patient and wait for it to come back down to $2.00 or less before I take a dip into it. I think I saw that OIL was at $40 a barrell yesterday and part of me thinks we could see it in the low 30’s again if the market does not hold here… That being said, I have bought into ATW as my OIL play for the long term.
PS, I started stocking up on bullets a few weeks ago. The ■■■■ things are outrageous right now. It’s pretty obvious that I am “buying high” right now, but I don’t mind paying a premium for them if I eventually need them!
Right now, my trades are around NTRI, BRCD, KEY and I am looking to possibly dip into AUY if it drops to $8.00 or less, and I am looking at FDML if it hits the 4.50 range… The trading thing is fairly new to me, so I would love to see your analysis on those charts… For NTRI, I bought at $10.63 and sold at $12.96. 22% return ain’t bad for 2 days although it was only a small trade. I bought KEY at 6.31 and saw it go down to 4.85 or something for a little. Instead of sticking with the plan, I panicked and got out as soon as it got back up to $6.32 which pretty much broke me even. Of course, if I would have stuck with my head, I could have sold it yesterday for $7.75!!! IDIOT!!! I think I’ll give it another shot if it comes down around $6.00 again.
Please let me know if you have any other good looking charts on small stocks that you know about. Also, I prefer the ones with the bullish to even trend as I’m trying to stay away from shorts right now… Won’t be able to buy PUTs in this account until I mail them the right paperwork.
PS, Also, I am well aware that AUY is a “gold play”, but at you can tell by the chart, it looks to have a pretty good trend upwards since mid-November.
quote:I'm having a little trouble interpreting the data...
Originally posted by Post QuartermasterBrand new update from one of the leading market analysis websites:
http://www.isthisthebottom.com/
Speaking of retesting lows…futures are getting their this morning. Better hope they cooked up a good GDP # or we’re going thru the floor…