Whatever happens with the market should be pretty interesting to all over the next 48 hours or so. It appears we are very close to the November lows… Will we re-test our lows and find some support, or will we break through the bottom? Let’s all pray that this is the “Double-bottom” that we have been looking for!
Been watching it - staying mid 7500…bet it’ll drop some more 
!
2007 TRITON 225CC
2007 MERCURY VERADO
2005 DODGE 3500 4X4 “CUMMINS”
Hope and Change
He took the bait like a jugbelly redfish on an olive and white clouser.
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Originally posted by skinneejWhatever happens with the market should be pretty interesting to all over the next 48 hours or so. It appears we are very close to the November lows… Will we re-test our lows and find some support, or will we break through the bottom? Let’s all pray that this is the “Double-bottom” that we have been looking for!
~50 pts away on the Dow, but ~48 pts away on the SPX, which is a pretty big disconnect between the indices. A bounce by friday is virtually guaranteed since its opex week, but if that doesn’t do it, I think they’ll reinstate the uptick rule, which at this point is the last bit of ammo left…either way, CNBC will be singing the praises of the “double bottom”, but most everyone with a little bit of EW knowledge will be happily reloading their short positions for the “reel bottom”…
50 points from the intraday lows on the DOW. I think it closed like a 1/4 point from the closing lows.
this could get reel* interesting.
And the sea shall grant each man new hope as sleep brings dreams of home ~ Don Cristobol
The Morris Island Lighthouse web page
www.savethelight.org
The recent posts about getting spiders safely outside reminded me of something I heard once about house-spiders being an entirely different species group from the spiders we generally see outdoors and they have evolved overtime for indoor-life only. This means that when we “set a spider free” we are actually killing them.
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Originally posted by Bonzo7250 points from the intraday lows on the DOW. I think it closed like a 1/4 point from the closing lows.
this could get reel* interesting.And the sea shall grant each man new hope as sleep brings dreams of home ~ Don Cristobol
The Morris Island Lighthouse web page
www.savethelight.org
The recent posts about getting spiders safely outside reminded me of something I heard once about house-spiders being an entirely different species group from the spiders we generally see outdoors and they have evolved overtime for indoor-life only. This means that when we “set a spider free” we are actually killing them.
Potato Po-tot-o.
It’s a bear market. They tend to go down. Don’t fight the trend.
I don’t think we’re gonna see much meaningful upside until the gov’t starts the inflationary part of the playbook…in the meantime, lets hope the wheels don’t fall off the wagon…
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Originally posted by Post Quartermaster[quote]
Potato Po-tot-o.
try telling that to a chartist. I don’t disagree with you, was just clarifying the point made earlier.
And the sea shall grant each man new hope as sleep brings dreams of home ~ Don Cristobol
The Morris Island Lighthouse web page
www.savethelight.org
So, PQ, let’s hear the big bad strategy that you are using to get 100% gains each month! I’m interested to see what is working for you. Give some names and entry\exit points, etc.
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Originally posted by skinneejSo, PQ, let’s hear the big bad strategy that you are using to get 100% gains each month! I’m interested to see what is working for you. Give some names and entry\exit points, etc.
Follow the Elliot waves…the devil is in the timing…I haven’t done 100% since October, but the trading account is still doing better than my 201K…
How about a primer? You have to give details or people think that you are just blowing smoke… The devil is in the details!!!
Elliot waves on which stock? How about a sample chart of one you have been following, etc.
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Originally posted by skinneejHow about a primer? You have to give details or people think that you are just blowing smoke… The devil is in the details!!!
Elliot waves on which stock? How about a sample chart of one you have been following, etc.
Come on Skinnee, you know I can’t make this stuff up…
Follow the waves on the S&P…get your daily SPX support /resistance levels from the EW blog site of your choice…coffee w/ gannfann has been pretty good lately…Buy near the money calls and puts on your favorite SPX index etf (QQQQ, SPX, etc.) based on where you see it going…place your stops…swing trade it to avoid the SEC day trading rules…hope the market makers don’t burn your theta with 5 days of sideways action or overnight selloffs in the futures market…try and be on the right side of the trade 51% of the time…
rinse and repeat.
But you talk as if you see some kind of clear upwards are downwards trend and there is none at this point. The market has basically been going sideways for a few months now. We are kind of in no man’s land at this point waiting to see if we will rebound or go lower.
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Originally posted by skinneejBut you talk as if you see some kind of clear upwards are downwards trend and there is none at this point. The market has basically been going sideways for a few months now. We are kind of in no man’s land at this point waiting to see if we will rebound or go lower.
Depends on your perspective, but the primary trend has been down for the past 12 months. Fairly short rally’s followed by drawn out declines. Even in the “last few months” we’ve had a ~175pt range on the SPX. That’s not “sideways” from a day trading standpoint IMO.
Enough about that, though…lets talk macro economics…last time I was over here you were harping on deflation…I still see inflation in the cards…alot has changed since then…care to discuss Skinnee-nomics?
Yes, but I need to get some work done today… The evidence for deflation already exists. I win… What is there to argue?
That being said, we won’t deflate forever. At some point we will enter a inflationary cycle as we typically have “standard” inflation for decades up until this point. I never argued that we wouldn’t return to our normal inflationary cycle (what is it like 3-4% each year). But, I think what you are asking about is “hyper inflation” or rampant inflation, i.e. a strong collapse in the US Dollar (putting gold and silver under your mattress). Correct?
As far as I can see, there are really only 2 things that could make that possible:
- US Economy takes off like a rocket again… Hihgly doubtful in the next 5-10 years. But eventually we will return to sustainable levels of growth and inflation.
- China starts dumping US Dollars overnight - which would cause hyperinflation. I seriously doubt that this would happen in a short time frame, but most likely over a longer period of time, unless they purposely did this as an act of war to bankrupt us.
So, do I see inflation running rampant in the next 5 years? No way… Only if the Chinese rapidly pull out of US Dollars, but since they are the primary holder of US treasuries, it wouldn’t make sense for them to just jump out, versus slowly over time (like a big mutual fund trying to reduce it’s position).
Keep in mind that the government may be printing money, but it can always restrict it’s balance sheet with a click of the mouse and remove any liquidity out there as surplus starts to reign in. Or, they could raise interest rates which would have a slowing effect on the economy. The can continue to print money as long as our consumer led economy is retracting\deflating. They just need to be sure to not let the economy go into super heating mode again… Keep in mind, a lot of the money that is being printed right now is evaporating into thin air.
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Originally posted by skinneejYes, but I need to get some work done today… The evidence for deflation already exists. I win… What is there to argue?
That being said, we won’t deflate forever.
Agreed, we’ve had deflation for a few months now. But we will have to reinflate alot sooner than later.
As much ■■■■■ as the Fed/Treasury crew gets, I think if we make it out of this mess it will be a case of hindsight being 20/20…
Although I think we can all agree that there is no good solution (and hasn’t been since the months preceding Bear Sterns collapse), here’s the way I’m starting to see Paulson / Bernanke / Geither’s strategy playing out:
1st - kill Russia & Iran - done through oil manipulation by investment banks/initial deflationary environment. Russia has already burned up 10-30% (depending on who you believe) of their FX currency reserves.
2nd - kill the investment banks - done - except for JP and Sachs (kinda)
3rd - kill Credit Default Swaps and other toxic assets - getting there.
4th - keep China happy - could be tough.
5th - slaughter the pigs, sell some bacon, kill some entitlements, reinflate and rebuild the economy.
In the meantime, keep everyone with full gas tanks, food in the pantry, and a 201K for the next 3-6 months.
In regards to inflation, what I’m talking about is getting the system to a “soft reset”. The system can’t reset properly because the bank and producer debt is junk. Companies can’t cover their fixed costs with lower demand combined with lower prices - regardless of how much labor they shed. No one is going to buy the assets or the securities backed by them because they know prices have to keep on falling. It’s a classic deflationary trap. If you let the cycle continue, the WHOLE system defaults in a year or two - aka Great Depress
I’m not sure that I understand your comparison to cars, etc… Give me some numbers to look at. I’m a visual person…
And you have to keep in mind that currency is only relative to OTHER currencies… If the rest of the world was getting stronger and we were getting weaker, then yes, we could debase our own currency. But there are two things that are of utmost importance here:
- We are the world’s reserve currency which puts a demand on US dollars. It would take longer than a year to wean off of that system. We aren’t Zimbabwe or Germany.
- Most of the rest of the world is in a recession as well. Currencies are all relative to each other. It’s much more likely that those economies\governments will follow suit with us. China has already approved their own stimulus package, etc. If we had a 1:1 ratio with the Euro and we doubled the dollars in circulation, then our currency would be debased by 50%, but if they do the same thing, then we are back to a 1:1 ratio, correct? This example is extreme of course to keep the math simple and yes, there is rampant inflation, but something like that won’t happen overnight, but relative to the other currency, it would still be a 1:1 ratio. Theoretically, if salaries, etc kept up with inflation, then it’s only an issue for people who loaned out money (i.e. BANKS!!!) and for those on fixed income.
But, we may agree on a lot of it for the most part… As you’ve read some of my other posts, it’s pretty obvious that I am not against “printing money” as long as it is at the right rate. It’s kind of like bailing water out of a sinking ship to give those who actually CAN survive a little more time to get things in order. For those who couldn’t survive anyway, they will drown, but there may be many who could survive if given a little time to figure things out. But, if you just not do anything, the ship may sink so fast and take down everyone with it before ones that could survive are given the chance…
The government is also trying to slow down panick in this environment. You can also compare it to a burning building. If someone got up and yelled “FIRE, RUN FOR YOUR LIFE!!!”, then mass panick would take over and more people would die getting trampled to death, than the ones that burn to death if we tried to move out of the exits in a more slow and orderly fashion.
If I am not mistaken, it looks like we HELD today… Maybe we will get a pretty heated rally on Monday…
down another 2.5% today? ouch…more work to be done…this thing is not over yet
And the sea shall grant each man new hope as sleep brings dreams of home ~ Don Cristobol
The Morris Island Lighthouse web page
www.savethelight.org
S&P at 12 year lows…
And the sea shall grant each man new hope as sleep brings dreams of home ~ Don Cristobol
The Morris Island Lighthouse web page
www.savethelight.org