Ok, let’s take a poll and see who thinks we are either headed into a recession or already in one or just in an economic slowdown?
PALMETTO C ~ 16’ Sea Fox
The Morris Island Lighthouse web page
www.savethelight.org
Headed heck, we are in what I believe as a full blown recession . Everyone is scared and dont want to spend money right now (at least in the houseing market). Most talk among friends is…how are we going to afford gas for the boat if it keeps going up. I have not lost my but in the game yet although I am down at the bottom of the list of money makers.Try again tomorrow.
23 Hydra sport 225 Yammy
The Margaret Jane II
I vote that we are aready there and getting deeper-hold on gonna be a very rough ride for the next 18 months, but what do i know, i bought a million bucks of learning tree:smiley:
quote:
Originally posted by shamrock but what do i know, i bought a million bucks of learning tree
That sounds funny doesn’t it?
PALMETTO C ~ 16’ Sea Fox
The Morris Island Lighthouse web page
www.savethelight.org
Personally I think we are just in a period of economic slowdown. Recession is defined by 2 consecutive quarters of declining GDP. I don’t doubt we are declining in certain sectors, but look at how much global exposure a lot of US companies have right now and how that affects their business. Caterpillar, Honeywell, Hewlett Packard, IBM, Cisco, all the mining companies and oil producing and refining companies. Industrial technology is booming worldwide. I have said it before but just watch China with the upcoming Olympics. The steel, oil, tech know-how, certain commodities and labor required to pull that off is simply amazing.
I know skinnej will argue with me, but that is kinda the point of this thread right?
PALMETTO C ~ 16’ Sea Fox
The Morris Island Lighthouse web page
www.savethelight.org
This is a bit long, but here’s a view from Marketwatch on that subject:
I think unless the gas prices come way down, the next 12 to 18 months tough and alot of mom and pop businesses will go down the sh#tter. I have worked with alot of manufact.'s in the past and they ALL are dwindling to nothing b/c everything is going overseas to China, Singapore, Afghan, Tawian, Indo…the only the we make in the USA now is crooked politics.
Gas AFFECTS everything in one way or another. I also think everyone is scared about our next President?
but what can you do?
21 scout w/150 yam 4str
Americans are spenders.
You can not stop it.
Americans may pucker briefly, but they don’t like to stay puckered long.
Just look at all the panics we’ve had over the last decade. They never last long.
Americans think if they act like nothing is wrong, then nothing is wrong.
Just look at gas prices. The first time gas hit $2.50 a gallon people sh!+ their pants and started riding bikes. Now it’s over $3.00 and nobody seems to care.
Worst housing and credit crisis since the great depression in 1932… That’s tough to chew on.
SJ-- its OK Uncle Sam will bail out all those who didn’t understand what they were doing…
George Carlin said it best, ‘Think of how stupid the average person is, and then realize that half of them are stupider than that’’.
I think it all depends on your definition of crisis.
High end real estate has hardly been affected at all. People with big boats and big houses aren’t the least bit worried about the economy. Instead of making $2.5 mil maybe they make $2.2 mil. There’s more orders at Trinity Yachts for mega tri-decks than ever before. I think they’ve got 40+ on order. Everyone of them over $20 mil and only a handful are going overseas.
I’m no expert and usually stay out of these discussions, but to me it seems that all that’s happened is a lot of Americans have once again overspent their money and now their catching the effects of it.
Their getting slammed with interest rates…which they’ll consolidate through another lender…and maybe have to rent for a while.
From what I can tell…you can’t stop Americans from spending money. It’s not any fun being frugal.
Ding ding- we have a winner. I think most people 22-34 live way beyond their means. They are entitled to a new car/new boat/eat out/ etc. Then when they can’t pay its a crisis and its not their fault. "How could those evil people trick me into signing this paper that I am responsible for $XXX,XXX ".
I think the bottom line is their is little accountability in today’s society. Look at the number of people sueing one another over trivial matters.
** A little humor:
Father/Daughter talk
A young woman was about to finish her first year of college. Like so many others her age, she considered herself to be a very liberal Democrat, and among other liberal ideals, was very much in favor of higher taxes to support more government programs, in other words redistribution of wealth.
She was deeply ashamed that her father was a rather staunch Republican, a feeling she openly expressed. Based on the lectures that she had participated in, and the occasional chat with a professor, she felt that her father had for years harbored an evil, selfish desire to keep what he thought should be his.
One day she was challenging her father on his opposition to higher taxes on the rich and the need for more government programs. The self-professed objectivity proclaimed by her professors had to be the truth and she indicated so to her father. He responded by asking how she was doing in school.
Taken aback, she answered rather haug htily that she had a 4.0 GPA, and let him know that it was tough to maintain. She insisted she was taking a very difficult course load and was constantly studying, which left her no time to go out and party like other people she knew. She didn’t even have time for a boyfriend, and had few college friends because she spent all her time studying.
Her father listened, then asked, “How is your friend Audrey doing?”
She replied, "Audrey is barely getting by. She only takes easy classes, never studies, and barely has a 2.0 GPA. She is so popular on campus; college for her is a bl
quote:Greg, don't be too sure. The next wave of loan defaults is expected to be commercial real-estate which is by anyones definigion "high end"... When corporations start to default on thier bonds it's not good for the economy.
Originally posted by greg1I think it all depends on your definition of crisis.
High end real estate has hardly been affected at all. People with big boats and big houses aren’t the least bit worried about the economy. Instead of making $2.5 mil maybe they make $2.2 mil. There’s more orders at Trinity Yachts for mega tri-decks than ever before. I think they’ve got 40+ on order. Everyone of them over $20 mil and only a handful are going overseas.
I’m no expert and usually stay out of these discussions, but to me it seems that all that’s happened is a lot of Americans have once again overspent their money and now their catching the effects of it.
Their getting slammed with interest rates…which they’ll consolidate through another lender…and maybe have to rent for a while.
From what I can tell…you can’t stop Americans from spending money. It’s not any fun being frugal.
Also, per your statement about Americans spending money. That’s exactly what got us into this mess. The past few years have peaked with debt-laden overspending across the board. Debt in the USA is at an all time high and people cannot rely on equity in their house to bail them out anymore. The reason that it cannot continue is because it will be tougher for people to get credit. So any spending must be from job income (not credit cards or 2nd mortgages). This may increase saving which also has a negative effect on the economy. Up until this point, american savings were at an all time low (1% of income) versus the average of 7%. It’s pretty easy math to see that if credit is shrinki
Don’t forget about the shrinking value of the dollar. This will open up the doors for foreigners to come buy up everything in the USA at half price. This might help the economy in the short run, but the place is going to look a lot different 50 years from now.
All valid points…but I have to ask, is the “belt starting to tighten” the same thing as a “crisis”?
That’s where the splitting hairs starts. “Crisis” is a good word to sell books and increase TV ratings. “Correction” just doesn’t have the same shock appeal.
As for home equity loans. People who can still afford the homes they live in will still borrow againts them, just maybe not as much as before. Again, a correction that has been long overdue.
I agree that it’s not the best time to want to buy a bunch of new toys, but to me crisis implies bread lines and college educated professionals fist fighting down at the docks over shift work.
My “portfolio” (if you want to call it that) has weathered the storm so far.
quote:
Originally posted by greg1It’s not any fun being frugal.
Pioneer 220 Baysport
Yamaha F250
quote:Maybe not a crisis for you, but for the 10-15 million home owners who will end up with negative equity in their house and a predicted 1 Trillion in losses, it will seem that way. You say "will still borrow againts them, just maybe not as much as before", but the point is that even if they want to, they cannot do this if their house has negative equity (they owe more than what it's worth). For you to borrow against your house, it has to have some equity in it.
Originally posted by greg1All valid points…but I have to ask, is the “belt starting to tighten” the same thing as a “crisis”?
That’s where the splitting hairs starts. “Crisis” is a good word to sell books and increase TV ratings. “Correction” just doesn’t have the same shock appeal.
As for home equity loans. People who can still afford the homes they live in will still borrow againts them, just maybe not as much as before. Again, a correction that has been long overdue.
I agree that it’s not the best time to want to buy a bunch of new toys, but to me crisis implies bread lines and college educated professionals fist fighting down at the docks over shift work.
My “portfolio” (if you want to call it that) has weathered the storm so far.
“but to me crisis implies bread lines and college educated professionals fist fighting down at the docks over shift work.” – That might be how you define a crisis, but maybe you are thinking “depression”. I am just saying, the worst is yet to come. America is in a very vulnerable position right now:
<> A war we cannot afford
<> Shriking value of the dollar
<> More people focused on gold and swiss francs than the US dollar as a “safe place” to put their money
<> Worse housing “bust” in history including the largest default on mortgages since the great d
Well, anybody that thinks home equity is a smart way to acquire toys probably is seeing a “crisis”.
The days of buying stuff with money you never earned might be dwindling. Again, a correction I think has been a long time coming.
As for good news good news…Tiger Woods is still winning tournaments.
quote:
Originally posted by skinneejLarry Kudlow leading the positive spirits like Bonzo into oblivion.
</font id=“quote”></blockquote id=“quote”>I resemble that remark. Chicken Little never appealed to me.
This is exactly why I posted this thread, to generate some discussion.
The US has always been the biggest kid on the block and if we could not force “our way” then we simply “encouraged” or outright bought our way. The quicker the US figures out where we will stand in the world order in 50-100 years the quicker we can adjust and better ourselves to live in it. Like I said before, I think this is merely a domestic speedbump in the road to global growth.
By the way, oil closed the day at $102.61. Oh and I should have help onto my KRY position…up 10% today.PALMETTO C ~ 16’ Sea Fox
The Morris Island Lighthouse web page
www.savethelight.org
The Holy Roman Empire was infallible…