What are you BUYING\SELLING -- TODAY?

General Business
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It’s time for a running thread to share ideas with each other… The best investment groups are ones that come from small teams of people that share ideas. Let’s enter our transactions here whenever you make a trade…

SOLD SRZ @ 3.60 (Short Term)
BUY MON @ 74.86 (Short Term)
BUY MO @ 17.86 (Short\Medium Term)
BUY GRT @ 3.50 (Short Term)
BUY N @ 15.54 (LONG Term)

N = Netsuite - This is www.netsuite.com. They have a business focused around “Software as a Service” (aka “SaaS”). Mark my words, SaaS will be the FUTURE of ALL SOFTWARE!!! All of the big players like Microsoft, IBM, Google, etc will all rely heavily in this space in the next 5 years. I’m banking that netsuite can grab their fair share of business. They are sitting on a 1B market cap and I expect this stock to increase AT LEAST 10 fold in the next 5+ years. Also, this company was partly founded by Oracle CEO Larry Ellison. Sure, he is a scumbag, but Oracle is a 100B company.

Netsuite’s current sales should be about $150-170M this year. That’s chump change in this world. Look at the growth though:

2004 - 16M
2005 - 36M (>100% increase)
2006 - 67M (~ 90% increase)
2007 - 108M (~ 50% increase)
2008 - 152M (~ 50% increase)
Current - 80M (so far with 2 quarters left)

Sure, we are in tough economic times, but since their product is web based, they can scale up and back as needed. Eventually, these guys will turn a profit and when that happens, we will have the next Dell.

I will say this however. I did take a look at some of their screen shots of their product, etc. It wasn’t too glamorous. It definitely had the underlying functionality, but they need a fresh look to it. Once that happens, it will sell itself.

It seems that their main expenses right now comes from “selling” expenses. I would imagine that once their get rolling, that the profit margin will grow. Some of the online gamers, etc are reaping profits upwards of 40-50%. I would expect the same from SaaS products eventually.

Check it out:

http://

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TODAY:

BUY HTE @6.80

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went short on hope ticker symbol BAMA, 1-21-2009

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Skinnee,

Not trying to knock you, but do you get all of your stock picks from motley fool, or just most of them? I know you’re a fundamentals type guy and all, but I think you need some TA to balance out what you’re doing. I’m no guru, but that gap on the HTE chart would have caused me to wait for a better price, personally…

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bought cytr @ 1.06 short term for me 4/8 weeks

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PQ, Just trying to diversify a bit. I already own some PWE and ERF and they have been really good to me so far. Note that these stocks are paying out monthly dividends

But to answer your question, each morning I wake up to a knock on my door and by the time I get there, there is a special manilla envelope with a white paper inside sitting on my welcome mat. All that paper has in it that has a stock ticker. Of course, I just buy as much as I can afford without asking any questions… Just kidding. Yes, I use the fool boards for “ideas”, but I do my own research. I don’t subscribe to their stock picking ideas, do you? But there are thousands of stocks rated on there. It’s a pretty good source of research. Anyway, I don’t know if you call that “getting my picks” from motley fool, but they are a constant stream of ideas. How do you get yours?

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And before you think that I am a crowd follower, check out how they rated my beloved “Netsuite” (N). They have it ranked 2 stars out of 5. That would make me a contrarian on that pick.

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Is nobody else buying\selling anything except for me and shamrock?

Today, bought:

ADDED MORE DHT @ 3.77 (bought it the first time @ 4.00)

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I really like the shipping industry right now. They have been taken out behind the woodshed and beaten down. People think that the economy has totally shut down and these things are priced like the world will never ship stuff again. Most used to pay incredible dividends, but now have cut their dividends to either pay down debt or add more fleet. Hmmm… Why on Earth would you add to your fleet at times like these? Probably for the same reason why I want to buy these stocks at times like these!

I wonder what will happen to these stocks once things turn around. I’m also looking to buy some DSX around the $13.00 mark if I can get it there. I also already own some EGLE and want to buy up some more if it touches back down to $4.75 again.

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quote:
Originally posted by skinneej

I really like the shipping industry right now. They have been taken out behind the woodshed and beaten down. People think that the economy has totally shut down and these things are priced like the world will never ship stuff again. Most used to pay incredible dividends, but now have cut their dividends to either pay down debt or add more fleet. Hmmm… Why on Earth would you add to your fleet at times like these? Probably for the same reason why I want to buy these stocks at times like these!

I wonder what will happen to these stocks once things turn around. I’m also looking to buy some DSX around the $13.00 mark if I can get it there. I also already own some EGLE and want to buy up some more if it touches back down to $4.75 again.

Lots of the ships being added were already in the works before the economy took a dive. Some shippers have paid millions just to get out of some of their ship orders. The dry shippers have really taken a beating and it’s questionable if some will survive. For the most part their share prices seem to follow the Baltic Dry Index. I had forgotten that I had been trading in DRYS and EXM earlier in the year when they were moving all over the place. I did OK but it was a crap shoot. I think it still is.

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My “problem” is that I am in too many positions that I like too much. Such as GE @9, FTO @11, Ep@5.75, Ttm under <5.
I did buy FBRSX, a mid cap financial mutual fund on a dip in early Oct. I just don’t have the time to do the research on the financials, so I’ll let a pro handle it. So far, so good.

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quote:
Originally posted by mcvlbound

Lots of the ships being added were already in the works before the economy took a dive. Some shippers have paid millions just to get out of some of their ship orders. The dry shippers have really taken a beating and it’s questionable if some will survive. For the most part their share prices seem to follow the Baltic Dry Index. I had forgotten that I had been trading in DRYS and EXM earlier in the year when they were moving all over the place. I did OK but it was a crap shoot. I think it still is.

People said the same thing about the banks and some of them have given returns of 400% or more if you bought at the bottom! I agree that there is always risk, but there are a couple of things that I know:
  1. The world will always ship stuff on boats (at least during my lifetime)
  2. Buffet says, “Be greedy when others are fearful. Be fearful when others are greedy!”

I realize that it’s a “contrarian” move to buy shippers in this day and age, but that is the whole point! Of course, you only have so much visibility, but I am trying to only buy the ones that seem to still have a good positive cash flow, not too much current liability, and who have recent transactions of “purchase of fixed assets” in their recent history. Also I am looking for market caps that are less than that of the value of their ships.

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SOLD MON - @77.11 (only a 3% gain)
BUY BBEP - @12.50 (probably should have waited to get cheaper, but I like the PE of 1.23)

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i wanna get started buying and selling some stocks. i am 21 years old and just wanna pitch a little money in something that i may be able to get a little return on. is there a website that yall feel comfortable buying and selling on. i am not gonna throw in thousands of dollars at once but just pitch a little here and there.

211 key west 175 suzuki

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quote:
Originally posted by beaufortjay

i wanna get started buying and selling some stocks. i am 21 years old and just wanna pitch a little money in something that i may be able to get a little return on. is there a website that yall
feel comfortable buying and selling on. i am not gonna throw in thousands of dollars at once but just pitch a little here and there.

211 key west 175 suzuki

I buy and sell through my Fidelity account, but there are a few big online names out there like eTrade, etc. The best thing to do though is start paper trading first as you are almost guaranteed to lose money the first time you do it. The reason is that "good companies" are easy to find. It's getting them at a good price and predicting that they will beat the market is the hard part.

Also, use the TV for news, but almost never follow their advice. Most of the time, the news, CNBC, etc put’s you in the trade very late in the rally and you are the last sucker to the party before everyone sells and you are left holding the bag. If it’s something that everyone and their mother is talking about (like Gold for instance), then you probably want to look elsewhere for a good deal. Just use common sense and read a few books. Books make it sound really easy, but you get humbled quick by real emotions when your superstar pick drops 5% on the first day you buy it.

I like the caps.fool.com website as there are a lot of good investors there.

Here are a few more tips for you:

  1. You may want to keep a close eye on the market over the next few weeks to few months. We’ve had an incredibly rally since March. Usually when things get too hot and too heavy too quick, they end badly!
  2. Remember what Buffet says, “Bear fearful when other’s are greedy. Be greedy when other’s are fearful”. In other words, it pays to be a co
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Great comments Skinjeel. I’ll add a few more:

Set up a watch list. Watch what makes a particular stock rise or fall.
Then you’ll know how much you can expect the stock to appreciate when you buy it. (I don’t ever buy unless I know where I want to sell.)

Trade something you know. Most of my mistakes were when I bought a stock I didn’t understand on a tip, or friend’s recommendation.

And to reiterate Skinjeel’s point, there aren’t many bargains out there right now. But if you do your homework now, when the pull back comes, you’ll be ready.

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quote:
Originally posted by Post Quartermaster

Skinnee,

Not trying to knock you, but do you get all of your stock picks from motley fool, or just most of them? I know you’re a fundamentals type guy and all, but I think you need some TA to balance out what you’re doing. I’m no guru, but that gap on the HTE chart would have caused me to wait for a better price, personally…

Doh! I think we know who wins this one…

SOLD HTE @ 9.25 (There is a bid on the table from North Korea to buy them out)… That gave me a nice little gain of %36 in 10 days!!!

That’s probably why we saw the gapping up of the past few weeks. Somebody has some insider information on that one and was buying into the stock before the big news…

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SOLD MO @ $17.99 – Pretty much a wash at 0.6% gain, but I am doing it to scale back my portfolio in case there is a correction in the next week or so.

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quote:
Originally posted by skinneej
quote:
Originally posted by Post Quartermaster

Skinnee,

Not trying to knock you, but do you get all of your stock picks from motley fool, or just most of them? I know you’re a fundamentals type guy and all, but I think you need some TA to balance out what you’re doing. I’m no guru, but that gap on the HTE chart would have caused me to wait for a better price, personally…

Doh! I think we know who wins this one…

SOLD HTE @ 9.25 (There is a bid on the table from North Korea to buy them out)… That gave me a nice little gain of %36 in 10 days!!!

That’s probably why we saw the gapping up of the past few weeks. Somebody has some insider information on that one and was buying into the stock before the big news…

Congrats. Nothing wrong with making a buck.

I noticed you mentioned some of your holdings are paying dividends. That’s good, but if you are holding something long enough to collect dividends, you may also want to look into writing some covered calls.

FWIW, the only trading I’ve done in the past week or so has been scalping in and out of some SRS. So far so good.

Right now, I’m looking at putting on a NOV credit spread on GOOG, as it tends to consolidate after earnings.

Sell the 570 strike call and the 540 put and buy the 580 call and 530 put for a credit of $545 per spread, with a 43% probability of expiring in the money. Got that? Pretty high risk reward trade, right there.

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The two that I have that are paying dividends are PWE and ERF (they are paying them monthly). PWE has appreciated 40% since I bought it and ERF 21% (not to mention that each one has paid me another 3% in dividends so far). Both are solidly beating the market. Both are double plays against the dollar as they are not only Oil\Energy trusts, but they are paying in Canadian dollars. PWE has been in an overbought state for a while, so I expect a correction in the next few months, but I am sitting tight. If I get a nice correction, then I will buy some more. I would not buy them at this level though (though I am not selling either). With my fidelity account (it’s a 401k that let’s be buy\sell individual stocks), I am pretty sure that I can buy calls\puts, but I they won’t let me write any.