quote:
Originally posted by natureboypeer reviewed opinion on a hypothesis built on shaky ground. There was ZERO mention on 50X faster. Also , the 0.55 sea level rise is ridiculous.
I never realized that you were a climatologist! Or are you expressing merely an opinion? One not based upon any evidence or data?
quote:
Originally posted by sea tonicquote:
Originally posted by natureboypeer reviewed opinion on a hypothesis built on shaky ground. There was ZERO mention on 50X faster. Also , the 0.55 sea level rise is ridiculous.
I never realized that you were a climatologist! Or are you expressing merely an opinion? One not based upon any evidence or data?
Come on Sea Tonic, you really believe our temperatures are rising 50X faster!!! That sir is utter B.S.
That really does not need any study in climatology, that does not need anything but a tinie winie bit of common sense.
Give us all some evidence S T. Never happen.
“Why Bruce?”
quote:
Originally posted by PalmerScottquote:
Originally posted by on a fishin missionquote:
Originally posted by PalmerScottquote:
Originally posted by on a fishin missionThere is no doubt we are coming out of an ice age and the earth is warming, as it has done for millions of years. The problem is we are heading up at a rate 50 times faster than we should be, 50 times faster!!
Please, respectfully, if you got that 50 from somewhere, please provide a citation. I would really like to know who is making that claim. I’m not trying to harass. I really would like to know who is making that claim.
I don’t think ‘5 times faster’ can be supported, certainly not according to any of the relevant data sets. ‘50 times’ is right out.
17’ Henry O Hornet w/ Johnson 88 spl
26’ Palmer Scott project hull
14’ Bentz-Craft w/ Yamaha 25
http://www.ulmerboatworks.com
Peer reviewed, as always.
http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v6/n4/full/nclimate2923.html
Now, I’m off to chase tarpon.
“Those who have the ability to make a difference have the responsibility to do so.” Thomas Jefferson
Pay walled. Nothing about rate of change in the part we can see. If you subscribe, can you excerpt the relevant portions?
And
“Those who have the ability to make a difference have the responsibility to do so.” Thomas Jefferson
quote:
Originally posted by on a fishin mission and over the next century that rate could increase to 50 times faster or more.Speculation Not Science OFM. </font id=“red”>
Currently we are heating up 20 times faster than we should be, a mistake on my part. We are tracking to reach the 50 times the normal rate I quoted earlier. I will post more wheni get home and am not in my phone. The 50 is a mistake on my part…heating at a rate 20 times normal is still alarming!!!
Do you realize if in fact (which we are not) what would be happening right now if we were warming 20X faster than any time in the past? Not only would the polar Bears have no home, I'd say Humankind would be on the brink of extinction too.
Off to chase more tarpon.
Come on OFM just admit you don’t know. I could see Man possibly warming the Earth by a .0067 %… maybe but 20X!! no.
“Why Bruce?”
quote:
Originally posted by sea tonicquote:
Originally posted by natureboypeer reviewed opinion on a hypothesis built on shaky ground. There was ZERO mention on 50X faster. Also , the 0.55 sea level rise is ridiculous.
I never realized that you were a climatologist! Or are you expressing merely an opinion? One not based upon any evidence or data?
CC is a hypothesis, so opinions are fair gamw
quote:http://www.diffen.com/difference/Hypothesis_vs_Theory
Originally posted by natureboyquote:
Originally posted by sea tonicquote:
Originally posted by natureboypeer reviewed opinion on a hypothesis built on shaky ground. There was ZERO mention on 50X faster. Also , the 0.55 sea level rise is ridiculous.
I never realized that you were a climatologist! Or are you expressing merely an opinion? One not based upon any evidence or data?
CC is a hypothesis, so opinions are fair gamw
quote:
Originally posted by on a fishin missionWhat humans are in the process of doing to the climate makes the transition out of the last ice age look like a casual stroll through the park. We’re already warming the Earth about 20 times faster than during the ice age transition, and over the next century that rate could increase to 50 times faster or more.
Currently we are heating up 20 times faster than we should be, a mistake on my part. We are tracking to reach the 50 times the normal rate I quoted earlier. I will post more wheni get home and am not in my phone. The 50 is a mistake on my part…heating at a rate 20 times normal is still alarming!!!
Off to chase more tarpon.
All of that is the output of models. All of it.
The models are theory.
The test of the theory is whether or not the model predictions match real data, that which the models are designed to predict.
Since the first few IPCC reports (predictions of calamity), we’ve collected enough actual DATA (physical measurements), that which the models are explicitly designed to predict (have I typed that before?), to test the models. The DATA fall outside the error ranges of the models.
This is science. Not politics. Not opinion.
Process → Formulate theory. Design falsifiable test of theory. Run test. Examine test results. If good, theory moves a step forward. If not, theory is falsified and MUST BE MODIFIED. You INSIST that we modify reality (data) to match the theory!
The modelers/models, themselves, produced the error ranges. They are a product of the data used to feed the models and the math done in the models. If you understand a little statistics/math, you realize that when that data, which the model is explicitly designed to predict (have I typed that before?), falls outside
Stretching numbers and stating guesses as fact are one of the many reasons that so many question CC
Beating the long dead horse…
The following animated graphic shows the model predictions used in each IPCC report with the associated error ranges on the right edge. The last line/arrow (black) that is drawn is the actual measured data. Note that data in this graphic stops in 2012. That’s a sufficiently long time series of data to prove the models wrong. Since then, we’ve gathered another 20% more data, 4 years. The data continues on a consistent trajectory which falls well below all the error ranges for the IPCC reports and the models therein.
This begs the question, why don’t the alarmist think it is possible, if not probable, that the warming we’re seeing is nearly entirely natural?
17’ Henry O Hornet w/ Johnson 88 spl
26’ Palmer Scott project hull
14’ Bentz-Craft w/ Yamaha 25
http://www.ulmerboatworks.com
Pretty sure the “leaked AR5 report” Athony Watts is referencing on his “The Onion for Science” caliber site is BS.
https://skepticalscience.com/ipcc-draft-leak-global-warming-not-solar.html
Why do the deniers think it’s more probable that the massive majority of the scientific community is in a conspiracy theory to take their coal away than they’re just…well…doing their job? I know some of you hate progress, but clean renewables are the way the world is headed.
ED, do you deny the actual values shown in the graphic?
They are straight from the IPCC reports. They show up in the reports, repeatedly.
While that graphic was scrubbed from that draft, the values in the graphic were kept.
That graphic is an accurate presentation of the model predictions, their error ranges, and the relative discrepancy between those and actual measured data.
The message delivered by the assassinated messenger is that the data shows the models to be wrong.
Anthony Watts’ site doesn’t say what you want it to. So, you slander the man. Beautiful.
17’ Henry O Hornet w/ Johnson 88 spl
26’ Palmer Scott project hull
14’ Bentz-Craft w/ Yamaha 25
http://www.ulmerboatworks.com
Climate alarmists are like drug addicts - shopping for the DR that will give them candy
quote:
Originally posted by Fred67quote:
Originally posted by on a fishin mission and over the next century that rate could increase to 50 times faster or more.Speculation Not Science OFM. </font id=“red”>
Currently we are heating up 20 times faster than we should be, a mistake on my part. We are tracking to reach the 50 times the normal rate I quoted earlier. I will post more wheni get home and am not in my phone. The 50 is a mistake on my part…heating at a rate 20 times normal is still alarming!!!
Do you realize if in fact (which we are not) what would be happening right now if we were warming 20X faster than any time in the past? Not only would the polar Bears have no home, I'd say Humankind would be on the brink of extinction too.
Off to chase more tarpon.
Come on OFM just admit you don’t know. I could see Man possibly warming the Earth by a .0067 %… maybe but 20X!! no.
“Why Bruce?”
"Right now we’re in a warm interglacial period, having come out of the last ice age (when New York City and Chicago were under an ice sheet) about 12,000 years ago. During that transition, the Earth’s average surface temperature warmed about 4°C, but that temperature rise occurred over a period of about 10,000 years.
In contrast, humans have caused nearly 1°C warming over the past 150 years"
Does 2.5 million years of temperature change data suffice?
"Those who have the ability to make a difference have
Do you believe in magic?
c/p from Richard Lindzen, Alfred P Sloan Professor of Atmospheric Sciences, Emeritus at Massachusetts Institute of Technology
The [’97 per cent of scientists believe in global warming’] claim is meant to satisfy the non-expert that he or she has no need to understand the science. Mere agreement with the 97% will indicate that one is a supporter of science and superior to anyone denying disaster. This actually satisfies a psychological need for many people.
Lindzen does not even pretend there’s a credible scientific case for the man-made global warming scare theory – because basically there just isn’t one. Believing in this theory, he concludes, is as stupid as believing in magic.
Hmmmm, did he just insult Bill Nye?
quote:
Originally posted by on a fishin missionquote:
Originally posted by Fred67quote:
Originally posted by on a fishin mission and over the next century that rate could increase to 50 times faster or more.Speculation Not Science OFM. </font id=“red”>
Currently we are heating up 20 times faster than we should be, a mistake on my part. We are tracking to reach the 50 times the normal rate I quoted earlier. I will post more wheni get home and am not in my phone. The 50 is a mistake on my part…heating at a rate 20 times normal is still alarming!!!
Do you realize if in fact (which we are not) what would be happening right now if we were warming 20X faster than any time in the past? Not only would the polar Bears have no home, I'd say Humankind would be on the brink of extinction too.
Off to chase more tarpon.
Come on OFM just admit you don’t know. I could see Man possibly warming the Earth by a .0067 %… maybe but 20X!! no.
“Why Bruce?”
"Right now we’re in a warm interglacial period, having come out of the last ice age (when New York City and Chicago were under an ice sheet) about 12,000 years ago. During that transition, the Earth’s average surface temperature warmed about 4°C, but that temperature rise occurred over a period of about 10,000 years.
In contrast, humans have caused nearly 1°C warming over the past 150 years"
quote:
Originally posted by on a fishin missionDoes 2.5 million years of temperature change data suffice?
Yes it would if it proved anything. I see you have backed off from your earlier claim that Man is causing Earth to warm 50 X faster and dropped it to 20 X’s faster.
Where do you even get 20X faster?
“Why Bruce?”
Clark et al. 2016
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/tops.12187/full
“Those who have the ability to make a difference have the responsibility to do so.” Thomas Jefferson
quote:
Originally posted by on a fishin missionClark et al. 2016
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/tops.12187/full
“Those who have the ability to make a difference have the responsibility to do so.” Thomas Jefferson
Citation for previous graphic, please?
If the ‘pause’ is real, the models are wrong.
Dr. Phil Jones – BBC – 13th February 2010
BBC – “Do you agree that from 1995 to the present there has been no statistically-significant global warming”
Jones - “Yes, but only just”.
That is a tacit admission that the pause was/is real and that the length of data is sufficient to produce a ‘statistically significant’ result. The models do not match the real world by their own definitions.
17’ Henry O Hornet w/ Johnson 88 spl
26’ Palmer Scott project hull
14’ Bentz-Craft w/ Yamaha 25
http://www.ulmerboatworks.com
quote:
Originally posted by on a fishin missionClark et al. 2016
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/tops.12187/full
“Those who have the ability to make a difference have the responsibility to do so.” Thomas Jefferson
so… if you can’t dazzle em with brilliance, baffle them with B.S?
You really and truly believe that our Earth is warming 20X faster than any other time in history?
Come on? Really? I think you are letting some “scientists” baffle you.
“Why Bruce?”