I use the Noaa forecasts for trying to determine when I might get to go offshore. The Nearshore forecast is updated but phone only pulls up the April 1st forecast. Anyone have any info on this. Is a phone thing or a noaa thing?
NOAA will get you killed…
I use bouy weather ,intellacast,sailflow and reefcast and the only thing i look at related to noaa is the bouy at capers and offshore,to see which one of the forecast was actually right,before we leave.
.usually i can follow the 41004 bouy during the week and compare it to those forecast sites to see which one should be right for 'the weekend…
Should have clarified that the Noaa forecast is one of the things I use to determine what the conditions offshore will be. I figured out what the issue was and found the updated forecast. Windfinder has a pretty good app that also forecasts ocean conditions. It seems fairly accurate when I compare the actual conditions at the buoy to the forecast.
Does reef cast seem to be pretty spot on most the time? I know NOAA is awful wrong most the time.
I ran out to Edisto last Saturday with a buddy and we got our A!!'s handed to us. The forecast was way off and we were fighting some awful wind and waves back in to the harbor.
2013 Sea Fox 256CC w/ 300hp Yamaha
“Snapper Slapper”
2003 Alumacraft 14 Crappie Jon w/20hp Nissan
“Pluff Daddy”
NOAA is wrong most of the time but for a general idea it helps.
2013 Sea Fox 256CC w/ 300hp Yamaha
“Snapper Slapper”
2003 Alumacraft 14 Crappie Jon w/20hp Nissan
“Pluff Daddy”
If Stormsurf and Reefcast jive then go with what they forecast. Last summer NOAA was right more times than any of the others, scary thought.
Mark
Pioneer 222 Sportfish Yamaha F300
Yeah, but do you consider a dog to be a filthy animal? I wouldn’t go so far as to call a dog filthy but they’re definitely dirty. But, a dog’s got personality. Personality goes a long way.
“Life’s tough…It’s even tougher if you’re stupid” John Wayne
Yikes and people ask why I never wanted to be a on air meteorologist. If this is how people talk about the NWS guys/gals that don’t even show their face. imagine how many people curse rob fowler and bill Walsh when it rains or doesn’t on their Saturday picnic plans.
Almost all of those sites that have been listed as sites for weather/sea state info can be useful but it’s important to realize that they are all just a repackage of the same model forecast info. Typically GFS, sometimes a blend of NAM 12km out to day 2. The offshore buoy forecasts are all run off Wavewatch iii without exception. Often the differences people refer to between sites intellicast, buoy weather, reefcast, etc are related to which model run is being displayed on that site. Some sites update faster than others. To get a true trend one must view run to run comparisons say 06z to 12z to note differences.
The Wavewatch iii product viewer page allows you to select bulletin text output for buoy locations.
http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/waves/viewer.shtml?-atlantic-
This displays up to 4 of the most energetic waves and periods. This may often be very insightful when for instance a 2-3ft trade swell at 8-9s is the primary swell but there may also be 2-3ft of 5-6 SW or NE winds well on top of that. Sure the seas will likely only be around 3ft most of the time but you will have a very confused difficult to drive in ocean. This is the type of thing that is not NOAAs job to forecast so they don’t bother. That’s enough tutorial I guess for today. Jeez bored myself!!!
I fished CC’s from 1983 to 2013,the first twelve or so years,my trips were planned around the forecast from a push button NOAA weather or VHF radio.They were right majority of the time.
Seems though, that forecasts don’t matter to some.Every meteorologist in the county could predict severe storms on the coastal waters,and some idiot will still venture out.
Of course, there are always container and cruise ships that will come rescue said idiots.
I use: http://www.sailflow.com/map#32.927,-79.886,7,1
and click on the buoy about 41 miles offshore C-Town…then click on “forecast”
Obviously SurfWrangler knows a thing or two.
Here is a link that most people likely don’t read but it is available right on your typical NOAA forecast page. It is more “work” than point-click but taking your life and those of others offshore…you owe it to yourself to understand a bit more.
The tough words have click and learn technology and you can highlight changed discussions to keep up with any anomalies in the forecast.
Say you see SW winds for tonight at 10kts on the point and click. Yet, you read about “nocturnal jetting” and “good mixing profiles”. You should know that it will blow 17.5kts at Edisto all night and not lay down until the sun starts to heat things up to equalize temps.
I will go on a limb here and say that NOAA forecasts are usually spot on, if you know where to look. Keep in mind the difference between 10 and 20 kts. is nothing to the commercial traffic they are truly forecasting the marine environment to.
One of the main problems really is that we don’t want to believe the forecast when it is not in our favor. When it says 5-10 NE, you know it never blows 5-10 NE, always 15! Same with SW at night, always 15+.
Also, read the same written forecast for 1 zone North and South of you. Be safe out there!
quote:
Originally posted by CourtlandOne of the main problems really is that we don’t want to believe the forecast when it is not in our favor.
absolutely correct…2-3s on 6 on the only day of the week you can go is viewed differently when the previous 2 days were 2s on 8 versus when the following 2 days are 4s on 6…
The Morris Island Lighthouse www.savethelight.org
Thanks guys for all the info! Great insight on how to make the trips safer and more comfortable!!!
2013 Sea Fox 256CC w/ 300hp Yamaha
“Snapper Slapper”
2003 Alumacraft 14 Crappie Jon w/20hp Nissan
“Pluff Daddy”
Here is an interesting thing I noticed in the link I included above.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/…
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BECOME LOCATED ON THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER
RIDGE MONDAY AND TUESDAY…BEFORE THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE SETTLES
OVER THE EASTERN STATES BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WEAK ENERGY
ALOFT AND AN ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO DIVE SOUTH
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY…HOWEVER NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE
BEEN CONSISTENT IN STALLING THE FEATURES NORTH OF THE AREA. WILL
THUS MAINTAIN A RATHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER INTO MID TO
LATE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL UNDERGO A GRADUAL WARMING TREND EACH
DAY…ESPECIALLY AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS INTO THE REGION. EXPECT
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S EACH AFTERNOON
FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO MODERATE
AND GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
I was planning on fishing Sunday and Monday, now I need to take a better look. Especially to the zone North of us. It is not common for a backdoor front in early May, but not unheard of. As a matter of fact that is what caught most people off guard last Saturday. Let’s check the written forecast to the North. Here is the Wilmington forecast:
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/…
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY…SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING OFF
THE COAST SUN MORNING…PUSHING THE FRONT STALLED OFF THE COAST WELL
EAST OF THE AREA. AT THE SAME TIME LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE
EXITING SHORTWAVE ALLOWS A COLD FRONT…ASSOCIATED WITH THE SE
CANADA LOW…TO DROP INTO THE AREA SUN/MON. THE FRONT ENDS UP
PARALLEL TO THE FLOW ALOFT…STALLING IN THE AREA INTO TUE AND
POSSIBLY TUE NIGHT. BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE AND NORTHWARD EXPANSION
OF SURFACE HIGH WILL PUSH THE FRONT BACK NORTH WED AND THU. STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL BE WHEN IT
STALLS. 00Z GFS AND CANADIAN KEEP THE FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA WHILE
THE ECMWF
quote:
Originally posted by Courtlandmodels do NOT handle backdoor events well
this should prolly be another thread completely…
The Morris Island Lighthouse www.savethelight.org
quote:
Originally posted by Bonzo72quote:
Originally posted by Courtlandmodels do NOT handle backdoor events well
this should prolly be another thread completely…
The Morris Island Lighthouse www.savethelight.org
Maybe your mind should be in another thread, gutter I mean.
http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=natla_height
Add the above link to “sites you check”.
It gives an animation of the entire North Atlantic. Lets you see how a system that moves off the coast well north or south of us can affect the wave here.
Just another tool to help make a good decision.
218WA Sailfish
The "Penn"sion Plan
Nocturnal jetting, mixing profiles, back door fronts, numerical models, upper ridges… You guys are making my head spin! Bonzo’s joke was about the only thing I understood!
2007 Scout 221 150 Yamaha 4 stroke
Courtland, whats is the scoop for monday
quote:Right now it's crap. Sunday looks better.
Originally posted by hamlincreekfreakCourtland, whats is the scoop for monday