I know that is typically happens in mid November, but the bottom temperatures on the USGS site are at 76*. So will the lake turn over once the surface temperature goes below 76*. If that is the case then we are only one cold spell away from turnover. I know that would be very unusual, but warm water rising and cold water sinking is what triggers the turnover. Maybe there is colder water below that will prevent an early turnover. Very odd seeing the O2 flat linned for the last 3 weeks.
Interesting theory. I went back and looked at this date last year and while the surface temp is just about the same, the bottom temp is 16* warmer right now than it was on this day last year.
'07 198 DLX Carolina Skiff
FS90 Suzuki
Been watching the temp and oxygen level graphs for a while now, and I’m thinking we’ll be looking at an early turnover soon. Hopefully that will also help to get oxygen levels back where they normally are.
I went and looked at the data from last year’s turnover.
It flipped on the night of Oct 28th and the top temp was about 69.3*.
The “bottom” temp was about 62*.
Here’s the “bottom” DO showing the flip.
Curently the “top” temp is 79.1* and the “bottom” is 76.8*
I was looking at this to try and see if it would help predict the turnover this year, but now I’m just more confused than ever.
'07 198 DLX Carolina Skiff
FS90 Suzuki
You’re right Skiff. It could be early this year according to the data.
Xpress HB-22
175 Yammy Jammer
How is the bottom that warm…??..All of the water released this year I guess…?
Redstripe, that’s the only thing I can think of. The cool water was being drawn out pretty much all summer long. Like Tom said in his original post, hopefully the cooler water below will prevent an early turnover because there was some pretty phenominal fishing last year from the time the fish came up until the lake turned.
The water being dumped in the river has been about 10* cooler than the “bottom” reading. With the top and “bottom” temps being so close together and the water being dumped in the river being so much cooler, I would think that the “bottom” reading is just a reading that is actually just lower down in the upper water column and there is a distinct thermocline below it. If that is the case I would think we have a while before it turns…and could almost see where that would even cause a later than normal turnover??
Disclaimer: This is all just speculation by someone with no real knowledge of the details of all the factors that go into determining exactly when the lake flips. In fact I don’t believe I have ever even stayed at a Holiday Inn Express before. 
'07 198 DLX Carolina Skiff
FS90 Suzuki
quote:
Originally posted by striperskiffDisclaimer: This is all just speculation by someone with no real knowledge of the details of all the factors that go into determining exactly when the lake flips. In fact I don’t believe I have ever even stayed at a Holiday Inn Express before.
You’re just hoping that the lake flip doesn’t blow out your tournament like it did last year … LOLOLOL …
it’s my Wife’s fault we HAVE to fish now!!!
2005 Sea Pro 2100cc / Yamaha 150hp 4-Stroke
geeeezzz…was it that obvious??? LOL
'07 198 DLX Carolina Skiff
FS90 Suzuki
quote:
Originally posted by striperskiffgeeeezzz…was it that obvious??? LOL
'07 198 DLX Carolina Skiff
FS90 Suzuki
Naaaaaaaa … not at all … should be fun … We need to meet up this week/end so I can give you $$
it’s my Wife’s fault we HAVE to fish now!!!
2005 Sea Pro 2100cc / Yamaha 150hp 4-Stroke
Striperskiff,
Yeah - typically the surface temp needs to drop close to the bottom temp (about 85 feet deep on your USGS screen shot above) in order for the thermocline layer to break up. I keep records on the turnover in my fish log. Here is what I have for the date of turnover in years past 11/4/2006; 11/17/07; 11/5/08; 11/2/09; 12/1/10; 10/20/11 and 10/29/12. The key is wind and wave action.
Sunlight penetrates and warms the water to a certain depth. In the summertime, wind and waves mix that warm surface water to a depth deeper than the sun can reach. The thermocline sets up about the depth the waves can get to.
The opposite can happen in the fall. Last October (nice screen shots by the way) there was a 7+ degree differnece in surface and “bottom” prior to turnover which is not enough for the water to mix. But if you recall we had a nasty cold front blow through and the big pool had 3+ foot white caps for a few days. All those waves knocked the thermocline out like Ali did to Frazier!
You guys are all on target - the surface and bottom temps are REAL close. But other than last weekend, the lake has been very calm for a couple of weeks. A few more cold nights and some good wind, and Murray should flip right over. When she does, the oxygen levels will stabalize throughout.
If you ever get the chance - try to be on the water a day or two after the lake flips. The air smells AWFUL like rotten eggs as all that “dead” water mixes to the surface.
<’)))))<
Tight Lines!
DANO
Just checked the USGS Stats for Lake Murray, difference between top and bottom is now 1 degree, the bottom oxyen level has started to spike upwards. Just hope this frontal passage doen’t come with wind, if it does it will turn over for sure.
Stinger 88,
Good catch on the DO increase in deep water. That LOOKS to be a sure sign the thermocline has begun to break up and H2O has begun mixing. Could be a slow mixing unless the wind kicks in.
P.S. Driving over the dam this AM saw a school about 100+ yards long smashing the surface between the towers and beach.
<’)))))<
Tight Lines!
DANO
Please all drive your boats slowly the next week or so and keep those wakes down!!!
'07 198 DLX Carolina Skiff
FS90 Suzuki
Striperskiff, I don’t think slow boat traffic is going to help you out. I think it’s already beginning and will be full blown by “artificial” Saturday. Maybe the wind won’t be blowing 20+ miles an hour like last time.
If the turnover happens before October 20, I will be really surprised!
Rick K
I may be wrong but I think she’ll turn over by Sunday.
Bottom and top temps. are in a dead heat. DO is still pretty far apart at this time. Maybe we’re within a couple weeks. Who knows?
Xpress HB-22
175 Yammy Jammer
I seen that spike today in the DO and figured it was on but it settled back down…its def starting but probably gonna take longer than normal to complete the cycle.
“Sea~N~Stripes”
21’ Hewes Craft Custom
115 Evinrude
May I ask an ignorant question?
How does the turnover affect the fishing? Just by looking at the graphs, I would guess that the fish are higher in the water column due to the DO. When the waters ‘flip’ does that indicate that the stripers should be going deep?
(OK - That is actually 3 questions including the first one!)
Sea Hunt BX22 Br
WS Tarpon 140