Will we have a fish kill in 2025? Data thread

This one shows current temps at a ton of bouys along the eastern seaboard. Interesting

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The ocean temp is really important I think. Harbor temps have bottomed out at 45 it seems. With the warming trend we are likely to see a curve like the lowest bump in 2010. Sensor info is below. It’s located 6 ft below MLLW so it’s not as sensitive to air temps.


sensor info 2

and here is the link to my source

@Optiker

LOL, I just was comparing the data from station 8665530 to station CHTS1, and was going to tell you they are remarkably the same. Turns out they are one in the same. ISATI

I think the trout might be fortunate this time too (around Charleston anyway) as the incoming tide today likely brought in a little warmer water, and the cold runoff is flushing now. It’ll be interesting to see what the next couple of tide changes do, its awfully cold again tonight.

I’ve never watched it this close before, thanks for that. (i think)

lets listen in…

I’ve walked down to the neighborhood landing everyday since the snow and fortunately I havent seen a floater. Im hoping the res spilling over so close and being so far back up the creek has prevented it from happinging back up in here.

Talked to two guys this morning around Edisto, they have seen no floaters either.

Good news, for the shrimp too.

That picture around IOP is highly suspect now.

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Shows you what I know :slight_smile: Water dropped further, momentarily to 44 and is now on the rise. Hopefully that was the min for this event. We had low 20s overnight here in Summerville. Notably, I had 3 separate first person accounts yesterday of many trout alive. You might have seen video of my friend Capt Jim Hutson who found a cold stunned red in a puddle of water, and it was still alive! He put it in the river and it swam away :slight_smile: Sluggish, but still kicking. On flats and small, deep creeks. Also, shrimp still alive, barely.

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Man on the creek report today. Water temp 43, rising tide. Slow snow melt running into the creek. Fished same spots, lures as last week. Plenty of reds moving, schooling. There’s a hole, 5’ deep at dead low, usually holds trout this time of year. Did today as well.



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Great pics and report, KC1!

And, huge thanks to everyone else for the information and updates on this thread.

It’s very helpful and appreciated!

This never happens

I’m guessing this flush will be the coldest water the harbor sees this stun

let’s listen in…

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Does anyone know the approximate dates for previous fish kills and approximate locations?

They happen every few years in all locations south of Maryland.

Not sure what you are asking JumpnC.

There’s a link above that will take you to the work Optiker has done on past stuns, is that what you are looking for?

@EF1 I am interested in understanding if there is a hidden relationship in the data that might give a prediction of a fish kill. Opti’s data is only showing the recorded data of the water temperature from the past several years…if there is an indicator of a fish kill on the chart, its not showing up on my end.

Poking around the NOAA site I found some interesting data. There are points in previous years of January and March that were possible fish kill events.


You could cross reference that data with this I suppose, that’s the best I got. Optiker will be along eventually to shine some light on it.

https://forum.charlestonfishing.com/search?q=Trout%20temp%20kill

@JumpNCobia If you look at the labels, this is not the past previous years, its a selection of known prior fish kills, notably 2010 and 2018 winters, and for reference a good year (green). Your plot is interesting and clearly shows that 2010 and 2018 winters were abnormally cold. 2001 was also a known kill year.

Here’s the latest. It seems that we are past the min, and the lag must be due to the cold snow melt running into the creeks (what do y’all think?) Still stubbornly hanging around 45.5 F. A LOT warmer temps this week thankfully.

I’ve continued to hear mostly good (first-hand) reports, and only a few dead fish here and there. I’m sure the dolphin and cormorants have full bellies. I’ve been calling that dead trout pic BS but Shea Gibson (a great local meteorologist) seems to have found the source and it was from Dewees, along with some other pics that were reds not trout. I’m still a little sus about it tho.

Yesterday, Ralph and I hit a pond we are members of and the water was 41-42 F. The LMB bite on chatterbaits was a-mazing! I thought they would be sluggish. No, I actually had to increase the speed and they hit it so hard I felt it in my spine :slight_smile:

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South of Charleston, near St. Helena sound. Have not seen any floaters in the river or little creek by the house. Not sure of water temp but closest source says 47, not certain of accuracy.

White pelicans have been cleaning up by our docks. Four or five in kind of a wolf pack both yesterday morning and this morning. Not diving from the air, just sitting on the water and scooping fish up in shallow water.

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Out of curiosity, I added the winter of 2000-2001 to the plot. Temps bottomed out around 43 F much earlier in the year back then.

Thanks @Optiker ! I understand the presentation of your data now! Based on this historical data we can safely assume fish kills are occurring in our waters this winter. So probably want to catch and release this year more than normal.

Nm, you answered my question.

Also, the cold lingering temps due to snow runoff is the most viable hypothesis. Agreed.